Donald Trump has not received a poll boost in the first presidential election survey conducted since the failed assassination attempt on Saturday.

The poll, conducted by Morning Consult of 2,045 registered voters on Monday, reveals that Trump is leading Joe Biden by just one percentage point on 46 percent, compared to the president’s 45 percent. The poll has a margin of error of +/- two percentage points.

  • @NotAnotherLemmyUser@lemmy.world
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    1563 months ago

    As much as I want this to be true (well I’d rather him be losing in all polls), this is disinformation at this moment.

    The poll they are referencing is this one: https://pro.morningconsult.com/trackers/2024-presidential-election-polling (Archive link)

    Under “In this tracker”

    KEY TAKEAWAYS

    Trump maintains lead: Trump continues to lead Biden by 2 percentage points, 44% to 42%, unchanged from the previous week and superior to his standing in the lead-up to the first 2024 presidential debate, when the candidates were tied. The latest data was collected Friday through Sunday, meaning most responses were gathered before Saturday’s assassination attempt on Trump at a campaign rally in Pennsylvania.

    Additionally, I don’t see any polls listed out here either that have been able to do a complete poll since the assassination attempt:

    https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden

    • @doughless@lemmy.world
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      183 months ago

      Maybe impartial information more than disinformation. It’s still likely the responses from late Saturday and Sunday would have impacted the percentage by at least 1 or 2 points. The fact it stayed the same hopefully means that at best it simply prevented Biden from taking the lead.

      • Maybe, but considering this information is highlighted in the poll’s key points (immediately following and under the same point used for the title) doesn’t look good. It means that Newsweek is either doing a poor job at covering this (they didn’t even provide a direct link to the poll), or they are intentionally leaving out key details.

        It’s also possible that they are only looking at a subset of the data that only focuses on people that were questioned the day after the event, but without a pro+ subscription I can’t tell if seperating out that group is even possible (if it even lists out which day a person was questioned) and that’s ignoring the impact on the reliability of those numbers given a largely reduced dataset.

        Morning Consult Pro+ subscribers are able to access the data sets that power Morning Consult Pro’s reports and analysis

        In the end, I’m waiting to see what the polls look like in battleground states to see how this event has really affected the situation.

  • @DaddleDew@lemmy.world
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    3 months ago

    There are those who see through Trump’s bullshit and those who don’t. And those who see through it won’t have their views changed by this event.

    We know how Trump would have reacted if the tables were turned. He wouldn’t have condemned the violence. He would have made evasive and vague statements suggesting that the violence should continue. We know that because he has done it before. Many times. As a matter of fact he did call for political violence against Hillary in 2016 when he suggested that “the second amendment people should do something about it”.

    We are not fooled. We might not approve of political violence. But no amount of playing the victim is doing to make us forget that he is still a scumbag. We will vote him out.

    • @oxjox@lemmy.ml
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      383 months ago

      There are those who see through Trump’s bullshit and those who don’t.

      What has baffled me for the past eight years is how many people, since day one, have not observed him for who he really is. I still can not comprehend how he was elected president and is again the nominee for the Republican Party.

      He has zero redeeming qualities. By all measures, he has the record of being the worst president in modern times. But most people don’t actually care about legislation or politics or this country - they only care about themselves and the “vibe” they get from someone.

      We live in a world where verifiable lies are shaping our reality. The people who claim to be patriots are traitors to the intent of this nation. I just do not understand how the brains of some people veil them from what’s being presented directly in front of them. Moreover, I have no idea how this doesn’t keep getting worse.

      • I have a friend who is obsessed with learning about cults, and he recently said that Trump’s speeches sound exactly like Jim Jones.

        The way it works is that you say something kinda crazy and lose maybe 10% of your followers. Now you know what you can get away with with the other 90%. Repeat this until you get the 30-50% of people that will eat up anything you say (or won’t leave due to sunk cost fallacy/can’t admit that they were wrong), and you have Trump’s base.

        These are people who have either drunk the Flavor-Aid, love him because he says the things they’re afraid to say out loud, or are just too deep now and can’t get out.

      • @retrospectology@lemmy.world
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        83 months ago

        He was elected because Democrats thought they could exploit his lack of support to force Clinton on everyone. They were wrong.

        Trump’s victory is more about Democratic strategic failure than anything else, they gave him the election.

      • @KoboldCoterie@pawb.social
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        73 months ago

        He has a cult of personality. They (the GOP) don’t seem to like him either based on how many of them denounced him at various points over the past 8 years, but they know he’s their best chance of winning, so they made him the candidate. They don’t care who the candidate is, as long as it’s one of their people.

    • Erasmus
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      133 months ago

      We know how Trump would have reacted if the tables were switched. He wouldn’t have condemned the violence.

      “People that get shot are losers!”

      • Trump in an alternate timeline
    • @Gigasser@lemmy.world
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      33 months ago

      The polls are also affected by project 2025 news, which can reduce the effectiveness of a post assassination boost.

  • @retrospectology@lemmy.world
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    833 months ago

    I think this confirms what we kind of already know; Trump has maxed out his support, and it’s not much. Turnout is key for Democrats.

    • @smeenz@lemmy.nz
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      3 months ago

      Not just key, but absolutely critical. Every single maga voter is going to turn out, and gerrymandering gives them a huge advantage as will the corrupt scotus. There will also be voter and voting fraud in favour of maga because if they win it doesn’t matter. There will also be evidence found of democrat voting fraud, so that they can claim both sides are the same.

      The only thing that will win this for the dems is overcoming apathy and voting in utterly overwhelming numbers, particularly in swing states.

  • @Fedizen@lemmy.world
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    673 months ago

    If Trump loses the election he got shot for nothing and will have the worlds most hilarious breakdown. Make it so.

  • @SSJMarx@lemm.ee
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    3 months ago

    This is pretty much exactly what I was expecting.

    How many people are going to go switch to Trump just because he got shot at? It aint the 80s anymore, the average American has picked their fukken side and the game is all about which side can get their base to show up.

    • @NotMyOldRedditName@lemmy.world
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      3 months ago

      The GOP game is actually how can we discourage the democrats from showing up because the core republican base is going to show up anyway.

      Making voting harder favors the GOP.

    • @TokenBoomer@lemmy.world
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      3 months ago

      Nothing has changed. Biden (or whoever the Democratic nominee is) will win the popular vote, Trump will win the electoral college, and America loses.

      • this is not election advice
    • @SirDerpy@lemmy.world
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      3 months ago

      They don’t represent my best interests even a little bit. My state will cast all its electoral ballots for Trump.

      I’m going to vote Green. If they get 5% then a hard left platform will be on every American ballot in 2028. That’ll turn Democrats left. Or, a Justice Democrat jump ship and split the vote.

      Ballot access '28 is actual leverage on the system. Better than wasting my vote on literally no change in the outcome while endorsing either of the fuckwads who can’t even deliver lines.

      Third election, same thing. Hoping the masses learn how their system works eventually.

      edit: There’s lots of down votes without explanation. This is why everything sucks: No one wants to learn and sacrifice anymore.

      • @dvoraqs@lemmy.world
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        53 months ago

        My take on the down votes is that it is dangerous to spread ideas about voting third party in a democracy with an election system that mechanically only supports two parties.

        Even if you’re in a “safe” state, people from states that are more in the margins may hear the sentiment and want to participate out of principle. It makes the opposition more likely to win.

        If we want the Democrats to win in the end, it’s safer to be pushing for engagement on all fronts. That’s what the Republicans are doing and they can actually be trusted to vote.

        • @SirDerpy@lemmy.world
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          -33 months ago

          If we want the Democrats to win in the end

          Even after understanding, you head right back to the bullshit they feed us.

          I don’t give a flying fuck about Democrats. I want me and the vast majority of Americans to win.

          • @dvoraqs@lemmy.world
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            23 months ago

            I think you are misunderstanding how the election system works. It is the Democrats vs Republicans and nothing else until a third party can get big enough to overtake one of the two and then it’s still just two major parties.

            Save your energy for reforming the election system and then advocate for what you want. We have to be realistic here.

      • @Triasha@lemmy.world
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        23 months ago

        I vote left in primaries and Dem in generals.

        If we get some ranked choice then it will be different. Until then, we gotta play it safe.

      • @Furbag@lemmy.world
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        23 months ago

        You’re getting downvoted because thinking that Green getting 5% of the vote will cause Democrats to pull left is a laughable fantasy. Nothing that any 3rd parties do affect their decisions or their overall platform. It’s all about money. You have a better chance of affecting Democratic or Republican policy if you donate a million dollars to one of their fundraisers than you do voting for Green, Libertarian, Independent, or whatever else for the rest of your entire life.

        Without ranked or approval-based voting reform, nothing will ever split up the political duopoly in this country. We should be focusing our efforts on that, starting with local elections and working our way up. Down ballot races are arguably more impactful to your day-to-day life than which ass ends up in the Oval Office chair.

        I get that voting while living in a state that is guaranteed to break for Trump or Biden feels like an exercise in futility. I’m not here to convince you to change your vote to Dem or Rep, you should feel entitled to do what you want with your vote, but stop pretending like throwing away your vote on the 3rd party candidate with no chance of winning and patting yourself on the back is some noble endeavor.

        • @SirDerpy@lemmy.world
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          03 months ago

          You’re getting downvoted because thinking that Green getting 5% of the vote will cause Democrats to pull left is a laughable fantasy.

          If their platform, which is what Sanders watered down twice, is on every American’s ballot in 2028, then the Democrats will be forced left because they can’t weed out the choice in their crooked primary like they’ve done twice already.

          The rest of your reply falsely equates my premise that Democrats will be forced left to a third party victory. It’s strawman, bad faith.

          • @Furbag@lemmy.world
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            13 months ago

            You asked for an explanation and I gave you one. Keep on dreaming that the only thing keeping Democratic establishment where they are on the political spectrum is that magic 5% number you tossed out and not the oodles of cash that their corporate donors supply them to keep things as they are.