My summary of the situation as I understand it is in spoiler tags below.
summary
After many long weeks, Iran and the US have agreed that they’re going to begin negotiations on certain topics in a process lasting at least 60 days. Due to America’s perfidy during previous negotiations, trust has broken down so far that Iran demanded $12 billion of their frozen funds and several other promises, such as the end to the naval blockade, to even return to the table, which seems perfectly reasonable to me. Iran also demanded that negotiations take place in two stages, and that nuclear issues will only be discussed in the second stage, which will be several weeks from now if everything goes as planned.
The terms of the MoU have themselves been a big source of confusion and suspicion, for me and many other pro-Iranian spectators. Getting the wording exactly correct is important, because the US really is like the devil - leave room for any possible interpretation in the contract that favors them more, and they’ll insist that this was the only interpretation up for discussion. Additionally, the US might be historically bad at winning wars, but they’re very, very good at winning peaces: they set up the post-WW2 order to best suit them by playing the European powers off each other; the DPRK might have survived the Korean War politically intact but existed for nearly the next hundred years as a sanctioned pariah; Vietnam was soon forced to economically engage with the country that had dropped triple of all the bomb tonnage of WW2 on them; and so on. It is no exaggeration when I say that the negotiation phase will be the most dangerous part of this war and it could lead to the most death and destruction without a single missile impacting Iran.
However, there’s one little genocidal colony in the region that could stop this whole process from even beginning, as the US appears to have promised Iran that the Zionists will stop the war against Lebanon (and perhaps Gaza too? I’m a little unclear) and even withdraw entirely from southern Lebanon, including all bases set up since this broader conflict began. Apparently, the US promised this in return for Iran not striking the Zionists in return for their most recent strike on Beirut on June 14th. Now, the issue with this whole situation is that the US greenlit the Zionist strike on Beirut, and they knew that Iran would respond to it because they did in response to an earlier strike. If the US made such major concessions to Iran in return for this response strike not occurring, then why authorize the Beirut strike at all? Why make their position worse? Right now, I can think of two reasons. First is that they attempted to create one final embarrassment for Iran, under the assumption that Iran was so desperate for a deal that they wouldn’t risk responding. Second is that this is all one big ruse or misdirection; the US does not intend to follow through with the MoU and subsequent negotiations anyway, and so the terms they’re “agreeing” to don’t really matter.
With the MoU signing apparently set for June 19th, we’ll know for sure soon.
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The Zionist Entity's Genocide of Palestine
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on the Zionists’ destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
Mirrors of Telegram channels that have been erased by Zionist censorship.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia’s youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don’t want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it’s just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists’ side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR’s former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR’s forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster’s telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a ‘propaganda tax’, if you don’t believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
TRUMP OFFICIALS REPORTEDLY OPEN BACKCHANNEL CONTACTS WITH ISRAELI OPPOSITION FIGURES
U.S. SAID TO BE ENGAGING ISRAELI OPPOSITION AMID CONCERNS OVER NETANYAHU COALITION
TRUMP ADMIN REPORTEDLY BUILDS TIES WITH POST-NETANYAHU CONTENDERS
https://x.com/FirstSquawk/status/2068143107858919749
it would be funny if this war just ends with israeli regime change and Iranian normalization
Tel Aviv is threatening Syria again:
On 18 June, Israeli Diaspora Affairs Minister Amichai Chikli declared in an interview with Israeli Army Radio that Tel Aviv “will be at war with Syria sooner or later,” highlighting that the alliance between Damascus and Turkiye poses a “strategic challenge” to his country.
The Likud official said, “There is no way that a jihadist regime rooted in ISIS and Al-Qaeda, whose aspiration is the unification of Jerusalem, can live in peace alongside the State of Israel.”
This is kind of the official unofficial state of Hormuz traffic as of today. If Hormuz really is closed again (supposedly it is) and stays closed for a couple of weeks, reserves will really run dry. The US could slow the bleeding with an open Hormuz, since they could stop exporting oil right away (tankers reach Asia quicker from Hormuz anyway) and managing leftover reserves would be easier. WTI July futures trading ends on Monday and the market is currently heavily shorted, so next week could be the wildest one yet.
Goldman Sachs: “Hyperscalers will need financing from across markets, structures, and currencies as they potentially bump up against saturation considerations in liquid credit markets …”
Warning: Active Psyop.
The Esptein-backed Farsi language news channels have been telling the public of a plan by Ghalibaf and Trump and Netanyahu to overturn Khamenei. See my post earlier in the megathread.
Now we’re getting people telling the Iranian state media about a betrayal by the negotiators before getting cut off (see posts below in the megathread). With the Director of IRIB resigning because of these discussions (also below).
We have people talking on supposedly on behalf of Khamenei, who we should understand are not Khamenei.
We discuss here the potential for the MOU to create a rift in the Esptein axis, but they are trying to do the same thing with Iran-Lebanon and internal Iranian politics.
Today, with armed forces on the streets of Tehran - awaiting a potential security incident - it’s clear the Epstein Axis has a plan and is setting the groundwork for how the public should interpret the ensuing events.
- Please be mindful of the rumours you spread.
- Please think carefully about any action before acting.
- Please remind everyone of their responsibilities for mature and considerate actions.
- Please understand the incentives and the plans for creating division and erratic action for undermining society.
British tabloids are saying that Keir Starmer is resigning on Monday. Bring back Boris!
First-hand account.
The streets of Tehran are filled with armed Iranian security forces and have been for hours. Nothing has happened. Nothing is currently happening.
RNN translated (mirror visible in US and EU)
🇮🇷 Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps: — The continued international silence and American evasiveness in pressuring the relevant parties to stop the sinful aggression on Lebanon have led to the undermining of all understandings and efforts made in this framework.
In view of this deliberate inaction and the continued “israeli” aggression on Lebanon, we announce that we are released from any commitment or agreement related to opening waterways or other understandings that were conditional upon stopping the aggression.
We announce the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz to shipping associated with the “israeli” entity and its supporters until further notice, considering this measure to be within the framework of exercising our legitimate right to defend our regional security and in support of the resistance and the oppressed peoples facing the “israeli” war machine.
Any attempt to breach this decision will be met with firmness, and we hold the “israeli” entity and the American administration behind it fully responsible for the repercussions resulting from the continued aggression and the disregard for the just demands to stop it.
I understand Israel isn’t used to being reigned in and the US just lets it do what it wants but does it seem like there’ll be a breaking point with that soon with it fucking up the peace agreement?
Or just business as usual
🇮🇷| ❗️Full story behind betraying Iran’s leader, as narrated by Khanalizadeh
According to Khanalizadeh, a prominent Iranian journalist, after the Leader’s martyrdom, the US quickly asked for a ceasefire, which Iran naturally rejected.
After the new Leader was chosen, Iranian officials prepared a 5-point plan for talks with the US, but the Leader rejected it.
After several rounds of revision, a 10-point framework was produced, which became the basis of the first SNSC statement. The Leader also added 8 extra conditions to that framework, including that there should be no nuclear negotiations at all.
He says the US initially accepted those 10 points as the basis because it needed a ceasefire, but once the Iranian team reached Islamabad, the Americans refused to negotiate on that basis.
Despite the Leader’s written instruction, the Iranian side reportedly discussed the nuclear file.
This made the Americans conclude that Iran did not really want to continue the war, and that if they pushed hard, they could extract concessions.
After Islamabad, the negotiating team sent reports to the Leader.
The Leader reacted negatively and objected, saying they had acted against religious/legal duty by discussing the nuclear issue and by failing to impose the 10 conditions.
Some SNSC members then wrote to him, arguing that talks could not happen without the nuclear issue and warned about continued war and attacks on infrastructure.
The Leader replied that “these negotiations would benefit neither their worldly affairs nor their afterlife,” and would not prevent Iran’s infrastructure from being hit.
After that, the negotiating team restarted message exchanges, completely set aside the 10-point framework, and pursued a new 14-point plan initiated by the Foreign Ministry, which became the Islamabad MoU.
The SNSC approved it and sent it to the Leader, but he gave no answer for about 2 weeks.
SNSC officials then considered treating his silence as approval, but at that meeting a letter from the Leader arrived with questions for each SNSC member.
Each member answered, and officials gave written commitments explaining how the clauses would be interpreted and implemented.
One example given is that the “non-interference” clause (US not interfering in Iran’s affairs( would mean shutting down some hostile anti-propaganda media outlets (such as Iran International, ManotoTV, …).
Only after these written commitments did the Leader authorize the MoU.
Khanealizadeh says this is the context behind the Leader’s phrase: “I had a different view.”
The Leader was not merely opposed to parts of the final MoU; he was against the whole post-Islamabad negotiation path once it moved away from the original 10-point framework.
The process, according to him, went forward because of pressure and insistence from the SNSC.
@FotrosResistancee
Src: https://t.me/FotrosResistancee/22338 (video included in link)
I do not feel good about this. I feel like it’s so joever for this chapter, Amerikka wins again just like it always does. I’m begging for something to happen, something to prove me wrong.
🇮🇷🇺🇸| Iran’s negotiating delegation led by Qalibaf is en route to Switzerland
The delegation consists of:
• Qalibaf, Speaker of Parliament • Araghchi, Foreign Minister • Bagheri, Deputy for International Affairs of the Secretariat of the SNSC • Hemmati, Central Bank Governor • Hamid Bord, Deputy Oil Minister • Gharibabadi & Beqaei, Deputy Foreign Ministers
— 🇮🇷 NEW: In an absolutely ridiculous move, IRIB (Seda va Sima) announces it will sue Iranian MP Mahmoud Nabavian for criticizing the negotiatiors on state TV, accusing him of making ‘distorted statements about classified documents and high-level correspondence’…
[video (1m25s) found in source link]
Nabavian spilled their hypocrisy and they didn’t like it.
Source: https://t.me/FotrosResistancee/22337 (video in link)
— 🇮🇷 NEW: In an absolutely ridiculous move, IRIB (Seda va Sima) announces it will sue Iranian MP Mahmoud Nabavian for criticizing the negotiatiors on state TV, accusing him of making ‘distorted statements about classified documents and high-level correspondence’
Nabavian was talking on TV and mentioning that the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, gave his orders clearly to the negotiators (i.e. Qalibaf and Araqchi) but they ‘brushed it off’ and proceeded with signing the MoU anyway.
The broadcast was suddenly cut during Nabavian’s remarks, citing technical issues. Now we know this was false.
The Director General of IRIB responsible for the broadcast has also resigned and accepted responsibility for ‘allowing such an unethical guest’ on the live programme.
