Very interesting read. The Suez moment had a new protagonist in the wings ready to take over global hegemony (the US). For the parallel to be exact, China would need to make its desire plain vis a vis Hormuz. It would be a massive Earthquake if China put pressure on the US to stop the escalations, because I think it would work.
That’s where the analogy breaks down for me. I don’t see a new hegemon rising at least not in the short term. But the US are loosing their iron grip on world affairs no less. Former allies stand back and a small country like Iran isn’t backing down. There are parallels to Ukraine, which is insane really.
I agree, the most likely case here is that this is a disaster for the US, whether they have to make an unfavorable deal with Iran and walk away (the best case for the Americans at this point), or they end up with the casualties from boots on the ground.
However the US gets to disaster, and what magnitude it is between the two extremes above, this is more likely one of a string of signs evident to future historians of eroding American control, ahead of the real Suez moment.
It certainly seems so. France and the UK lost so much prestige because of this. It marked a very real end of the British Empire in particular
Sure seems this way. This thing has barely begun and I expect things to get much, much worse.
One big difference is that back during the Suez incident, when the nations involved signed the ceasefire, no matter the reason, you could at least assume they’d stick to it.
In comparison, everybody on the entire planet - except his cult members, natch - assumes Trump is a backstabbing liar. Any deal with him is worthless before pen touches paper. What reason do the Iranians have to negotiate, when it’s entirely possible he’ll tell his DUI hire to blow up the plane with the ambassadors on the way home?
Privacy-molesting-walled. Unallowed to read it.
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This is far worse than Suez.
