• SabinStargem@lemmy.today
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    1 天前

    It isn’t about the size of the dog, it is the fight in it. The Iranian chihuahua has a death grip on the neck of the American doberman.

    • racoon@lemmy.ml
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      1 天前

      The US doesn’t make war to win or lose. It makes war in order to fund the weapons’ industry’s oligarchs with unlimited public money

      • ☆ Yσɠƚԋσʂ ☆@lemmy.mlOP
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        1 天前

        While that is absolutely the case, the problem they have here is that they don’t control escalatory dominance. Typically, the US can dial things up or down as convenient, and if things get too spicy they can leave without any consequence. But here, Iran controls a choke point of the global economy, and leaving would have disastrous geopolitical consequences for the US. If they’re forced to abandon all their vassals in the Gulf, then their image as a world power collapses overnight. How can Europe, occupied Korea, or Japan credibly think that the US will defend them at that point?

        • humanspiral@lemmy.ca
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          20 小时前

          How can Europe, occupied Korea, or Japan credibly think that the US will defend them at that point?

          It’s disturbing if they currently think US will defend them, when all defenses are moved to Israel today, and Trump shifts from “not our problem, we should leave” and “permanent global economy destruction”, and delaying “permanent global destruction” while Israel pursues it anyway. Furthermore, pursuing the Israel genocide expansion plan makes US angry at low enthusiasm level of its colonies to join, and promises “bad future” for its allies.

          If they’re forced to abandon all their vassals in the Gulf, then their image as a world power collapses overnight.

          That is most likely outcome. Of the $200B funding request bill, as much as $50B is expected as earmark to allies reparations other than Israel. Unclear that congress will go along with any funds for them.

          • ☆ Yσɠƚԋσʂ ☆@lemmy.mlOP
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            18 小时前

            Right, I really can’t see how the US can win this war or even exit it with any sort of dignity. It’s a massive geopolitical humiliation.

        • Maeve@kbin.earth
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          20 小时前

          If they’re forced to abandon all their vassals in the Gulf, then their image as a world power collapses overnight.

          As opposed to staying and their image being more like the loooooong, slow decomposition of an embalmed corpse? Like it’s still going to happen, it’s just taking too 🤬 long?

            • Maeve@kbin.earth
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              18 小时前

              Painful as it may be for underdeveloped egos, GTFO NOW and start making reparations seems the best option, but I’m an internet rando, so there’s that

                • Maeve@kbin.earth
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                  18 小时前

                  Well, even the best developed egos don’t often like humble pie. And I don’t think Trump’s handlers really care much about results, as long as they’re making money. I imagine they imagine money makes humble pie taste really good, until they’re the pie filling.

              • mirshafie@europe.pub
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                13 小时前

                I don’t think a path for deescalation exists anymore. JD Vance could maybe have taken the reigns by referring to Trump’s ill health, promised to send more competent negotiators who could meet Iran in good faith, and essentially dropped Israel to save America (or at least give it a few more good years).

                But that’s a very tall order, and he just went out to claim Iran is designing nuclear suicide vests, so I guess he watched Wag the Dog and took some inspiration.

  • rwrwefwef@sh.itjust.works
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    2 天前

    Significant strike. Each one of these that bite the dust means 5-10 less planes raining bombs on Tehran. Iran has excellent targeting prioritization, much better than going after schoolchildren.

    • ☆ Yσɠƚԋσʂ ☆@lemmy.mlOP
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      2 天前

      You can really tell they’ve planned this out. They took out all the early warning systems in the first days, and now they’re hunting these high value targets.

      • Maeve@kbin.earth
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        20 小时前

        I’m guessing three quarters of a decade dealing with the Great Satan was a hard study session that paid phenomenal dividends, to use the only parlance Westerners relate to.

      • Lucidlethargy@sh.itjust.works
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        1 天前

        Well when you’re up against ZERO FUCKING PLAN being enacted by the world’s dumbest and most arrogant leader on your own home turf… It’s kind of hard to lose, I imagine.

        • Eldritch@piefed.world
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          23 小时前

          Certainly not impossible. But those easily embarrassed are easy to embarrass for sure. That absolutely checks out.

        • Bloomcole@lemmy.world
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          1 天前

          And LOL at the western hypocrites crying about it.
          They can train, arm, fund and send ‘advisors’ to the ukro’s but Russia giving some satellite info is bad.

          • WoodScientist@lemmy.world
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            20 小时前

            Eh. I can oppose both Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the US/Israel war on Iran. It’s not about which team you’re on. It’s about backing the country being invaded and attacked.

            • Bloomcole@lemmy.world
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              20 小时前

              Many people can, but apparently politicians and their media mouthpieces dogmatically defend their US masters.

              • mirshafie@europe.pub
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                13 小时前

                They never cared about international law or right and wrong. It was always just a tool to bludgeon the other team with, and now that the tool is turning against them they’re dropping it like a broken toy.

                • Bloomcole@lemmy.world
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                  9 小时前

                  Many people still believed their BS about ‘the rules based order’.
                  I know it’s a lie but still was shocked to hear some EU ‘leaders’ blatantly say international law doesn’t apply to Iran.
                  After condoning the genocide in Gaza they now defend the illegal war and mass murder of children in Iran.
                  How can these loathsome turds look in the mirror.

          • Eldritch@piefed.world
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            23 小时前

            The west has no monopoly on hypocrites. But this is certainly the rightful. finding out phase of an octogenarian toddler’s fucking around.

  • cmbabul@lemmy.world
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    2 天前

    It feels like Iran is exposing the traditional US military as a bit of a paper tiger unless you count nukes. I’m sure I’m at least kinda wrong, but that’s the vibe I’m getting

    • WoodScientist@lemmy.world
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      20 小时前

      We may just be in an era where things swing in the direction of cheap mass armies rather than expensive elite fighting units. Think knights vs longbows. Sometimes the technology of the day favors small numbers of very expensive fighters, vehicles, and weapons. Sometimes the tech favors large numbers of cheap weapons. Cheap longbowman beat out expensive elite armored knights. Elite gun-toting marksmen and mercenaries eventually replaced the longbow armies. The mass gunpowder armies of the Napoleonic era replaced the elite mercenary armies that came before that. In the twentieth century, tanks, machine guns, and aircraft overcame masses of soldiers charging trenches with cheap rifles.

      It’s not necessarily some moral failing of the nations involved. We may simply be seeing the technology evolve. Expensive aircraft that cost hundreds of millions are the modern day equivalent of knights, while cheap drones are the equivalent of the hoards of English longbowmen. An individual knight could easily defeat a single longbowman in combat. But bows were so cheap you could deploy them by the thousands. A modern fighter jet will laugh in the face of a cheap drone. But if the jet costs as much as a thousand drones put together, spamming drones becomes the winning tactic.

        • WoodScientist@lemmy.world
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          20 小时前

          I don’t know if this info is even available. But I would be extremely curious to see if trans soldiers were concentrated in any particular positions or areas of the military.

          I imagine the military readiness of the average trans soldier was probably far above average. It’s not like the military or military culture was ever some utopia for trans people. I’m sure every trans soldier or sailor had to deal with a whole lot of shit related to their gender. To be willing to put up with that, they would have to really like and be passionate about their job. To rise in the ranks in the face of bigotry, they would have to be quite skilled at their job. Marginalized minority groups usually need to work twice as hard to produce the same career outcomes as their non-marginalized peers.

        • MinnesotaGoddam@lemmy.world
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          22 小时前

          They got rid of their best damn F35 wrench in the marines I can tell you that for sure

          he left back in 2015. he was republican, but he didn’t want to reup to serve under trump for some reason.

    • CaptDust@sh.itjust.works
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      2 天前

      US seemingly watched russia get rekt by ukrainian drones and decided they’d like a punch in the face as well. But who am I to judge those masochistic tendencies.

    • JoeMontayna@lemmy.ml
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      16 小时前

      Whatever the case, I am sure it will be short lived. Assuming the adults are put back in control.

    • ☆ Yσɠƚԋσʂ ☆@lemmy.mlOP
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      2 天前

      This is the first time the US actually tried to fight a technologically advanced army since WW2, and the results are frankly embarrassing.

        • ☆ Yσɠƚԋσʂ ☆@lemmy.mlOP
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          1 天前

          They’re one of a handful of nations that are able to put a satellite in orbit and they have hypersonic weapons that burgerland is still isn’t able to procedure, but do go on.

        • BarneyPiccolo@lemmy.today
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          22 小时前

          Don’t forget, we’re supposedly bombing them because they are on the brink of nuclear capability. That’s pretty advanced.

            • BarneyPiccolo@lemmy.today
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              20 小时前

              Of course NK got it first, nobody was bombing their facilities at at regular intervals. You can make faster progress when you don’t have to rebuild your entire program, including replacing all your dead scientists, every few years.

              And so we did it in the 4Os, so what? Nuclear weaponry is still considered among the highest tech, and extremely dangerous, which is exactly why they wanted to bomb it.

              They also have cool enough drone tech that they regularly get past Israel’s impenetrable Iron Dome defense.

              It kind of defeats your argument that they are technologically weak, when we are bombing them because we fear their technological strength.

              Underestimating your opponent is one of the most classic moron military moves, and one America enthusiastically engages in, which is why we’ve lost most of the wars we’ve fought since WW2. When you don’t take your enemy seriously, you don’t fight them hard enough offensively or defensively, and you eventually lose.

        • captainlezbian@lemmy.world
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          24 小时前

          Yeah they are. They’re a theocracy, yes, but the theocracy made a point to maintain the scientific and engineering capacity they had prior. They’ve got women with barely any freedoms with PhDs and jobs using them. If you can’t understand that you can’t really assess their capabilities. What they lack is allies, water, and freedoms

        • Iraq was nothing like Iran. Iraq is a small country, with a small population and a small military industry. Iran is far more advanced and capable, and it also had more time to prepare both strategically and technologically.

        • ☆ Yσɠƚԋσʂ ☆@lemmy.mlOP
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          2 天前

          Iraq had mostly 70s tech, and the US did manage to break their army initially and topple the government. It was a disaster in strategic terms, but Iraqi regular army was no match for the US. This time around, Iran actually appears to have the upper hand. They’ve pushed out the US out of their bases across the region, destroyed billions if not trillions in the infrastructure that the US built up over many decades, and they’re eliminating American air power which was thought to be untouchable. This is truly unprecedented.

          • RobertoOberto@sh.itjust.works
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            22 小时前

            Your description of the differences between Iraq and Iran is good, as well as your explanation of the current situation.

            However, it would change significantly if the U.S. decided to stop half-assing it. If the douchebags running the show decide they want to commit to a full-scale invasion with all available assets, I think you’d see a situation more similar to Iraq. We could absolutely roll Iran’s formal military if we committed to it.

            But the subsequent occupation and attempt to maintain control would be doomed to the same failures as Iraq, Afghanistan, and all those before it, but on an even larger scale. All forward progress would stop once the Iranian military’s command and control falls. There’s no way we could win the asymmetric warfare that would follow, and I’m not at all saying we should even try. It’s all a pointless pile of shit that never should have been started.

            • ☆ Yσɠƚԋσʂ ☆@lemmy.mlOP
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              22 小时前

              That’s frankly delusional. Iran is a country of 90 million people. The US does not have the resources to, as you say, roll them. In fact, it’s pretty clear that US army isn’t even prepared for the realities of modern warfare like drones.

              • arrow74@lemmy.zip
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                12 小时前

                Unfortunately all it would take is a fast deployment tactic dedicating everything the US has. It comes down to raw numbers of immediately available manpower, aircraft, and munitions. The US has a stupid amount of these things at the ready.

                It would be bloody and brutal and not certain, but I’d say the US would have a decent chance of overrunning the country.

                Now this will only topple the government, then you get into a whole Afghanistan situation again. So I suppose it depends on what the definition of victory is. Could the US defeat Iran and occupy it? I think it’s likely, but the second they leave a new government that hates the US (rightfully) forms. Could they occupy indefinitely? Probably at a steep cost.

                So I see a path for the US to overwhelm the Iranian military, but no real way for them to ever establish control of the region. I wouldn’t call that a win for the US for sure

                • ☆ Yσɠƚԋσʂ ☆@lemmy.mlOP
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                  5 小时前

                  The US is not configured to deploy everything it has in one theatre. This is not a realistic scenario. You’ve clearly have never dealt with real world logistics in your life, if you think that’s even remotely possible. And even if this fantastical feat of creating supply chains to the region for sustained war was possible, there’s very little chance of the US overrunning anything. You only have to look at a map to realize that Iran is a very mountainous country that would be a nightmare to fight in.

                  Finally, the US army is configured for legacy 20th century warfare. NATO as a whole is entirely unprepared for what modern war looks like. This is part of the reason the US is already getting its ass kicked by Iran, not being able to establish air dominance which is the core part of NATO fighting doctrine.

                  here’s how NATO fared in recent exercises with Ukrainian veterans https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iAg4qBaFvjI

                  and here’s how well US army is prepared to deal with drones https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ETeA07YjnSM

              • RobertoOberto@sh.itjust.works
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                22 小时前

                A population of 90 million people is irrelevant to the question of military capability. It is absolutely relevant to a discussion about the insurgency and guerilla warfare that would inevitably follow the conventional war, but I think you and I already agree that there’s no way for the U.S. to win that (nor should we try).

                But I don’t think the bits of relatively small damage Iran has done to U.S. forces in the region is convincing evidence that they’re capable of taking on the full brunt of U.S. capabilities, even without going nuclear. Launch enough drones and missiles and a few will inevitably get through. But we’ve also been using our own drones for more than 20 years now, longer than most other countries. Most importantly though, we have significantly more resources poured into everything that would follow the drones in a full-scale invasion.

                And just to reiterate: I don’t think any of this is a good idea, and I don’t support any of it. But when you’re talking about the significance of damage and casualties caused by Iran, you can’t ignore the fact that the U.S. is holding back so far.

                • WoodScientist@lemmy.world
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                  20 小时前

                  But we’ve also been using our own drones for more than 20 years now, longer than most other countries.

                  The key is that due to our kleptocratic military industrial complex, we’re not able to produce these drones cheaply. Our military and its supply chains are built around producing very small numbers of very expensive weapons. We can’t even get Congress to pass a military right to repair. Contractors bilk the taxpayers for spare parts at a 10000% markup, and our system is too corrupt to end their thievery.

                  The hard truth is that our military isn’t actually built to win wars against competent peer or near-peer opponents. It’s built to line the pockets of defense contractors. Or, to use a car analogy, Iran is producing cheap $5k k trucks. Our military is running on $100,000 low margin, high profit SUVs.

                • humanspiral@lemmy.ca
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                  19 小时前

                  capable of taking on the full brunt of U.S. capabilities

                  US strategic options made public are like 300 but instead of guarding a choke point, they rush into higher defense ratios.

                  But we’ve also been using our own drones for more than 20 years now, longer than most other countries.

                  US is not among the 4 drone superpowers. Iran is one of these. US tech is old, expensive, and not high volume production.

                  you can’t ignore the fact that the U.S. is holding back so far.

                  The option they have threatened is mutual assured destruction of global economy. US has avoided Iran oil, and unsanctioned them during this war. It’s hard to see why they would escalate more, even if Israel gets to veto.

                • queermunist she/her@lemmy.ml
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                  22 小时前

                  They don’t need to take on the full brunt of the US, they just need to keep the Strait closed to US-friendly traffic until the US economy collapses.

            • WoodScientist@lemmy.world
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              20 小时前

              Worse. The US actually just doesn’t have enough troops to occupy Iran. We literally don’t have enough people in uniform. The US would need to institute a draft to raise the number of soldiers necessary.

                • WoodScientist@lemmy.world
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                  17 小时前

                  I don’t think the US can even afford such an occupation financially. We’re already spending more on interest than we are on even the defense budget. Even if our leaders completely ignore popular will and the cost of lives. The US budget and debt can only be stretched so far.

            • humanspiral@lemmy.ca
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              19 小时前

              If the douchebags running the show decide they want to commit to a full-scale invasion with all available assets,

              If you’ve played RTS/starcraft, zerging one unit at a time after you have started the campaign, is not effective. Zerging as a verb also refers to suiciding cheap units to overcome a big objective, and US is not playing the Zerg side. Putting entirety of US military forces in near proximity of Iran is going to continue the reported hospital filling Iran strikes on those gatherings from this weekend.

              The plan you speak of is completely different than surprise assassination of ayatollah followed by quick air campaign hoping for surrender. It is something that has to be in place before the air campaign, and not one unit at a time that has 2 week lag time before it is in position.

    • Bloomcole@lemmy.world
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      1 天前

      The US military is shit, always was, always knew.
      Only difference is they can’t hide it in this case.

    • rwrwefwef@sh.itjust.works
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      2 天前

      The odds are that they provided the intel; since it’s thanks to Chinese satellites that we visually can confirm the hits. American companies have blacked out all sat pictures coming out of the middle East and Israel. Something, something about freedom of information.

      • Englishgrinn@lemmy.ca
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        1 天前

        Yeah I dont know how the army does it, but civilian aircraft would have to be “repaired” by being stripped and rebuilt or they’d never be considered flight ready. The distinction between destroyed and damaged is just the Air Force saving face.

      • SkyezOpen@lemmy.world
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        2 天前

        The report also stated that the aircraft were damaged by the missile attack, but not completely destroyed. The affected aircraft are currently being repaired, and no casualties were reported in the incident.

        Destroyed in title. Damaged in article. Top tier journalism.