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Cake day: January 29th, 2025

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  • Source (Sixth Tone) is a Chinese state-funded soft-power outlet. That should not be relevant to this report, which is simply decent journalism.

    This is always relevant, one reason being that they intentionally suppress certain information to spread propaganda and propagnada only. It’s the outlet’s sole raison d’être. This so-called “soft power” comes from the same dictatorial political system. It is an inherently bad and unreliable source and has nothing to do with decent journalism.





  • I don’t know what Trump exactly wants in Venezuela and Iran, of course, but the wars here and there hit China massively.

    Both Venezuela, the country with the largest known oil reserves, and Iran are (were?) ideal partners for China’s global business model built on commodity-based lending. It works quite simple: a Chinese bank close to its government loans the money, the borrower required to sell commodities to a buyer in China, and the commodities proceeds will then be redirected to the bank service the loan. As these trades often occur at predefined prices, China benefits not only by gaining political influence in the selling country - often politically isolated and whose primary source of income is the commodity - but also by making itself a bit independent form fluctuating oil prices.

    China has similar deals with a wide range of countries to whom it provides loans for commodities: in Zimbabwe China purchases platinum with such agreements, in Zambia cobalt and copper, in Ghana bauxite.

    In Venezuela, the China Development Bank financed the loans for the government in Caracas. The commodity purchase contract involved Venezuela’s state-owned oil company Petróleos de Venezuela SA and a Chinese state-owned oil purchaser. The loan is then being repaid by the proceeds from Petróleos de Venezuela SA’s revenue stream from oil sales.

    Venezuela is the largest borrower of this Chinese state-backed lending scheme in South America and the fourth largest globally. Between 2000 and 2023, China granted loans totaling USD 95 billion to Venezuela via this scheme, which is roughly 90% of China’s total loan volume to Venezuela, according to AidData.

    Amidst the current turmoils, however, the supposed convenience has a hefty price as China’s credit risk is highly concentrated in a single commodity - in Venezuela’s case, oil. Any fundamental change in Venezuela’s oil industry would inevitably effect repayment terms (and enforcement conditions) of Caracas’s debt to Beijing.

    The situation in Iran is similar. China has been buying cheap oil form sanction-hit Iran for a long time. China accounts for more than 80% of Iran’s maritime crude oil exports, and Iranian oil accounts for 13% of China’s oil imports. If Iran is forced to shut the Strait of Hormuz, it has a much wider impact as 45% of China’s (and 20% of the world’s) oil and gas supply is shipped through this small lane in the gulf.

    For a short period of time, China may be able to even benefit from a possible oil scarcity. It has bought a huge stockpile and could be able to sell its refined oil to others at a reasonable price. But Beijing has no reason to celebrate as this will be short-term. In the long run, the situation will cause a lot of troubles for China.

    This is not to say that the US is deliberately aiming at China. I don’t understand what the current administration is doing as Trump appears to contradict himself perpetually. But the impact on China is tremendous imho, at least this is how I interpret the data.

    I apologize for the long comment.

    [Edit typo.]