These bubbles usually last approximately five years. (Or at least that’s been the case historically.) We’re in year four. I’m actually keeping a portion of my portfolio in cash so when the crash comes I can take advantage, though I may move my whole retirement account into bonds and money market funds after the new year.
So I hope that cash isn’t USD. Honestly, all currencies look pretty bad right now. And if Trump triggers Iran into destroying the Middle East (and maybe triggering Israel to nuke, if Trump hasn’t already), the only thing that’s going to be worth a damn is cigarettes and penicillin.
Apparently this was covered in an article in Fortune magazine. in it they state trump called it a ‘soft default’ on usa debt.
This is basically not paying debts. it’s consistent with trump practices. Afterall, didnt he bankrupt 40 companies including 6 casinos? he’s just moving on to bigger fish by bankrupting the usa now.
The AI bubble is propping up the American bond market too (countering all of the other crap Trump had been doing to undermine the economy). When the bubble pops, the bond market is going to suffer massively as well.
You’re not wrong. I’m thinking of buying in post-bubble potentially, but I’m not 100% sure what I’ll do yet. I do know that, by the day, it feels more and more like a good time to take the profit that’s there and wait.
Do you mean long term bonds or do you think short term will be affected as well? If it is a riding rate environment then t-bills or MMFs probably have more to gain from the rising rates than risks from a drop in value of held bonds
You could reallocate into bonds if you believe that it will tank the equity market as a whole. Most available options to allocate into a pretty broad so it’s not totally exposed, just expect lower returns in the mean time and be prepared to reallocate into more growth exposure if/when the broader crash happens. Difficult to time so beware.
He may not be far off.
These bubbles usually last approximately five years. (Or at least that’s been the case historically.) We’re in year four. I’m actually keeping a portion of my portfolio in cash so when the crash comes I can take advantage, though I may move my whole retirement account into bonds and money market funds after the new year.
Trump just said in a response to a question about our $40 trillion debt (jesus, that’s a lot of zeroes), “You know, inflation, certain levels of inflation, will also pay off that debt very rapidly. Very rapidly.” https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/trump-just-soft-launched-higher-inflation-as-the-new-solution-for-rebalancing-the-40-trillion-us-national-debt/ar-AA2dpocG
So I hope that cash isn’t USD. Honestly, all currencies look pretty bad right now. And if Trump triggers Iran into destroying the Middle East (and maybe triggering Israel to nuke, if Trump hasn’t already), the only thing that’s going to be worth a damn is cigarettes and penicillin.
Astonishing really.
This is the guy running the US like a business.
Don’t worry about debt, just stoke up inflation so it does t seem like so much money.
Nothing could possibly go wrong with this plan.
The “he’s a businessman and he’s going to run the government like he runs a business” argument is as stupid as it was prescient.
Apparently this was covered in an article in Fortune magazine. in it they state trump called it a ‘soft default’ on usa debt.
This is basically not paying debts. it’s consistent with trump practices. Afterall, didnt he bankrupt 40 companies including 6 casinos? he’s just moving on to bigger fish by bankrupting the usa now.
Who could have possibly seen this coming??
Tech billionaires were late to the party showering trump with money to get him elected.
Cryptobros were there first. They want the dollar at zero.
The AI bubble is propping up the American bond market too (countering all of the other crap Trump had been doing to undermine the economy). When the bubble pops, the bond market is going to suffer massively as well.
You’re not wrong. I’m thinking of buying in post-bubble potentially, but I’m not 100% sure what I’ll do yet. I do know that, by the day, it feels more and more like a good time to take the profit that’s there and wait.
Do you mean long term bonds or do you think short term will be affected as well? If it is a riding rate environment then t-bills or MMFs probably have more to gain from the rising rates than risks from a drop in value of held bonds
I guess that depends how much real damage Trump has done to the underlying economic come B-day.
T-bills and MMFs sound like something from different communities…
Is there something I can do with my work 401k?
You could reallocate into bonds if you believe that it will tank the equity market as a whole. Most available options to allocate into a pretty broad so it’s not totally exposed, just expect lower returns in the mean time and be prepared to reallocate into more growth exposure if/when the broader crash happens. Difficult to time so beware.
Bonds are a bad call as well, as the US government is screwed on interest and will be inflating.
Gold is a better call, this looks like stagflation coming.