What people DO is much more important than what they Say. Especially when you’re talking about an entity that lies as freely as the Russian government does. This is a curious bit of news, then. Why would Russia go to the trouble of closing border crossings.

Don’t know, but here’s some Idea Fuel:

A) A formal round of mobilization is indeed coming, and they want to limit the ability of their citizens to flee westward.

B) OR - in more conventional times, this would be an indicator that they are planning to attack Finland or the Baltics - suspend traffic to prioritize military movement.

C) Propaganda. It would fit into a larger pattern of simple, escalatory bluster that you’re SUPER SERIOUS and might invade. But there hasn’t been any kind of detectable troop and mass materiel build up reported that would suggest invasion.

If it’s C), well it’s a bit of a ham fisted way to go about it. There are lazier ways to rattle sabres.

If it’s B) That’s nuts. It’s broadly and credibly thought that attacking NATO directly in 2026 is an idea even too insane for this Kremlin to consider. A fresh and clear eyed NATO force that’s had time to prepare - even if Trump does his job and refuses American participation - is way more than capable of obliterating the current version of the Russian army. The Baltic fleet and Kaliningrad would be destroyed in a couple days. The attacking Russian forces might have some success in the tiny Baltics, but the Poles and Finns might bilaterally decide this is full scale war, that the war is not limited to Ukraine. And that, regardless of what the rest of NATO does, and regardless of Trump’s inevitable ‘this-isn’t-our-war’ spin, that the war is coming and better to fight it now while you’re relatively strong and Russia is relatively weak. Better to fight an inevitable war of survival on someone else’s territory, rather than your own.

Even in a reduced state, Russia might be able to take much of tiny Estonia and Latvia temporarily, but Finland and Poland are well-prepared forces, and territorially complete fantasies given Russia’s inability to make serious inroads in just right-next-door Ukraine. Doing so - would also dispel any delusions that this war is about “internal” politics of trying to force regime change in Ukraine, but Russia has no intention of attacking NATO. It would confirm there are no limits to the war for Putin - this is the entire enchilada, the full restoration of the Russian Empire or bust. It would become impossible for serious minded people to consider this war as a contained thing drawing to it’s conclusion. Unserious, Russian funded agents in the West like AfD, Front Nationale, Farage, Fico, Nowacki etc would say what they always say - and should, rightly, be ignored as the paid stooges that they are.

So - if you accepted that attacking NATO is a bridge too far, then you’re back to A) - that this is still about Russia’s goals in Ukraine and suggests pending internal mobilization.

Further mobilization is a very dangerous move for the Russians. They have an uncontrllable bleed going on in Ukraine. They are unable to move foward, drones are decimating their infilrtration tactics, and their standoff terror bombing is VERY expensive. The Ukrainians are keeping the efficiency of those attacks pretty low in the big picture, while increasing their own attack capabilities agains russian oil & gas facilities creating shortages that are now fully impossible to hide from civilians.

The thing about mobilizations is that they take time. If you need troops today, you needed to start training them 6 months ago. Even in the world of simple brutality that is Russia, they have to make these new recruits combat effective, or they’ll die even faster than the ones being turned into noodle soup by drones. There will be unrest if they do a broad mobilization now. No question. And there will be MORE unrest of this next crop of low functioning grunts is plucked from the higher rungs of the socioeconomic ladder than the backwater useless mouths, ne’er do wells and desperate paycheque chasers that went before them. In short - the recruitment targets will be harder to achieve, and if you’re sane - which is not a given - you need to outfit and train this round of soldier slaves properly enough to make an actual difference than compared to what’s happening today.

That’s a very, very long shot. Nothing from Russia’s performance over the last two years suggests that another 150-200k troops is going to make a lick of difference. It’s just another 3-6 months worth of casualties to gain another destroyed town or two. But - it at least would answer the question ‘why close the Western borders’.

Another round of mobilization would also mean this war continues for a couple more years. During which, Russia will be absorbing daily drone attacks, air defense assets will continue to dwindle, even worse gas shortages, high risk of economic collapse, continued high inflation, and a spiderweb of spreading shortages of anything that needs to be transported.

Pay attention to this one - somehow in Russia’s plans, this makes sense. But it also might trigger a war-ending reaction at home.

What do you think? Let’s have a chin wag.