The U.S. Coast Guard is waiting for additional forces to arrive before potentially attempting to board and seize a Venezuela-linked oil tanker it has been pursuing since Sunday, a U.S. official and a source familiar with the matter told Reuters. The ship, which maritime groups have identified as the Bella 1, has refused to be boarded by the Coast Guard. That means that the task will likely fall to one of just two teams of specialists - known as Maritime Security Response Teams - who can board vessels under these circumstances, including by rappelling from helicopters. The days-long pursuit highlights the mismatch between the Trump administration’s desire to seize sanctioned oil tankers near Venezuela and the limited resources of the agency that is mainly carrying out operations, the Coast Guard.

Unlike the U.S. Navy, the Coast Guard can carry out law enforcement actions, including boarding and seizing vessels that are under U.S. sanctions. Trump earlier this month ordered a “blockade” of all sanctioned oil tankers entering and leaving Venezuela, in Washington’s latest move to increase pressure on Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. The Coast Guard has in recent weeks seized two oil tankers near Venezuela. After the first seizure, on Dec. 10, U.S. Attorney General Pam Bondi posted a 45-second video showing two helicopters approaching a vessel and armed individuals in camouflage rappelling onto it. A Saturday social media post by the Department of Homeland Security, which oversees the Coast Guard, showed what appeared to be Coast Guard officers aboard the Gerald Ford aircraft carrier getting ready to depart and seize the Centuries tanker, the second of the ships boarded by the U.S. A U.S. official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the Coast Guard officials on the Ford were from a Maritime Security Response Team and at the time too far from Bella 1 to carry out a boarding operation. “There are limited teams who are trained for these types of boardings,” said Corey Ranslem, chief executive of maritime security group Dryad Global and previously with the U.S. Coast Guard.

The Department of Homeland Security did not immediately respond to a request for comment and Reuters could not determine what, if any other reasons, have led to the Coast Guard not seizing the vessel yet. The administration could ultimately choose to not board and seize the vessel. The White House said that the United States was still in “active pursuit of a sanctioned dark fleet vessel that is part of Venezuela’s illegal sanctions evasion.”

LIMITED RESOURCES

The U.S. Coast Guard is a branch of the armed forces but a part of the Department of Homeland Security. The United States has assembled a massive military force in the Caribbean, including an aircraft carrier, fighter jets and other warships. Ospreys and additional MC-130J Commando II aircraft arrived in Aguadilla, Puerto Rico in recent days, according to a separate source. The Coast Guard has far fewer resources in place. The service has long said that it lacks the resources to effectively carry out a growing list of missions, including search and rescue operations and drug seizures. In November, the Coast Guard announced that it had seized about 49,000 pounds of drugs worth more than $362 million in the eastern Pacific. “The Coast Guard is in a severe readiness crisis that is decades in the making,” Admiral Kevin Lunday, who leads the Coast Guard, told lawmakers in June. For the fiscal year ending September 2026, the Coast Guard requested $14.6 billion in funding. It will receive an additional $25 billion through a sweeping spending and tax legislation, known as the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act.” “Our Coast Guard is less ready than in any other time in the past 80 years since the end of World War Two. The downward readiness spiral we are on is not sustainable,” Lunday said earlier this year.

In a written response to Conservative MP Ben Obese-Jecty, defence minister Luke Pollard said “there are no plans to extend the out-of-service date for Warrior beyond 2027, and as such an extension is not under consideration.” The answer makes clear that the Army will not revisit the decision to retire the long-serving infantry fighting vehicle, despite ongoing concern about potential armoured capability gaps. Pollard said the department’s focus is now on delivering the ambitions set out in the Strategic Defence Review. He told Parliament that priority is being given to “achieving the Strategic Defence Review’s vision for a tenfold increase in British Army lethality over the next decade,” with modern armoured fighting vehicles forming part of a wider force structure. The minister added that future capability will rely on “survivable and lethal platforms” operating alongside “new layered systems of attritable and consumable platforms,” signalling a continued shift away from extending legacy equipment and towards mixed, multi-layered force designs.

y’know, maybe before you switch to “attritable and consumable” platforms, you should make sure you actually have the industrial capability to make enough things that you can indeed treat them as consumable?

Recently, we reported that the government confirmed that Project ATILLA, the Army’s plan to convert retired Warrior infantry fighting vehicles into optionally crewed minefield-breaching platforms, has now advanced beyond its initial concept work and entered the early stages of commercial competition. Responding to a written question from Conservative MP Ben Obese-Jecty, Defence Minister Luke Pollard said ATILLA “has progressed from considering conceptual elements such as evaluating project feasibility” and is now preparing to move into the Invitation to Tender stage. He did not provide a date for the formal end of the concept phase, but the answer makes clear that the programme has already passed that milestone. The clarification follows earlier disclosures setting out the structure and ambition of ATILLA. As previously reported, the programme aims to turn surplus Warrior hulls into heavy, attritable uncrewed ground vehicles capable of breaching minefields for the Royal Engineers. A Prior Information Notice published in August revealed the MoD’s intention to procure up to six converted Warriors as a Minimum Deployable Capability, fitted with front-end breaching equipment and able to operate either with a crew or remotely. From the outset, ATILLA has been designed as a spiral-development effort. Phase 1 will deliver the initial six vehicles for operational use and experimentation, while Phase 2 will focus on advancing autonomy and refining requirements for a future purpose-built heavy UGV fleet. Industry bidders must meet a stringent entry test, with only suppliers able to deliver six fully functioning optionally crewed breaching vehicles within the set time limits allowed to progress.

The logic behind the project is straightforward: Warrior’s retirement from frontline service leaves the Army with robust tracked hulls offering the mobility, protection and payload needed for high-risk engineering tasks. Converting them avoids the lengthy timelines and significant expense associated with designing a bespoke platform from scratch, and gives the Royal Engineers a survivable option for clearing minefields without placing crews directly in harm’s way. According to the Ministry of Defence, by cutting through minefields, the device clears explosives and pushes them aside, opening a safe path for troops to move faster and more securely towards critical enemy positions or key objectives, outpacing current methods in speed and safety. “The device, called WEEVIL, was developed collaboratively by the Defence Science and Technology Laboratory (Dstl) and Pearson Engineering Ltd – a British company based in the north-east – using the latest tech. WEEVIL can clear minefields quicker and safer than present capabilities, reducing risk to soldiers on the front line. Current mine-clearing methods include the TROJAN Armoured Vehicle, which requires a three-person crew to operate directly within hazardous areas.” “The system prototype currently uses the Warrior Infantry Fighting Vehicle, fitted with a full-width mine plough, advanced remote-control system, and vehicle-mounted cameras. This allows it to be operated by a single person from several miles away from danger and is expected to be able to adapt to work with any suitable vehicle platform. The ground-breaking trials are set to continue with the British Army, who will push the robotic system to its limits, providing vital insight to inform future mine-clearing capabilities. The prevalence of anti-tank and anti-personnel mines in modern warfare to slow troop movements has been highlighted by the conflict in Ukraine.”

China’s military aerospace sector is clearly in a period of rapid growth and innovation right now. As it continues to roll out new combat aircraft designs, crewed and uncrewed, for domestic use, it’s also lining up new exports of at least three of its in-production fighters. That’s one finding from the unclassified version of an annual Pentagon report to Congress on China’s military, released yesterday. The latest Pentagon assessment of the military and security developments involving China doesn’t include much in the way of new information on the individual aircraft programs for the People’s Liberation Army (PLA). The report does mention the debut in the last 12 months of “two stealth aircraft with novel tailless design features,” the aircraft that are now known informally as the J-36 and the J-XDS. Other debuts highlighted include the land-based J-35A fifth-generation combat aircraft and the J-15D carrier-borne electronic warfare aircraft. Also of note is the statement that the new airborne early warning and control aircraft based on the Y-20B transport is “meant to identify and track advanced stealth aircraft.”

Perhaps the most significant military aerospace development is the assertion in the report that China aims to produce six aircraft carriers by 2035, which would provide a total of nine (China’s third, the Fujian, began its inaugural sea trials in May). Recent imagery indicates that China is progressing with work on a new aircraft carrier, its fourth, which is expected to introduce nuclear propulsion. There are increasing reports that Beijing may also still be working on at least one more conventionally powered carrier, too. If these plans are accurate, then the gap between China’s fleet of carriers and the U.S. Navy’s 11 active nuclear-powered supercarriers is growing smaller at an even faster pace.

When it comes to China’s fighters for export, the report identifies the fifth-generation Shenyang FC-31 (export variant of the J-35), the fourth-generation Chengdu J-10C, and the JF-17, which it defines, somewhat puzzlingly, as a light combat aircraft. The last of these, also named Thunder, is a China-Pakistan coproduction, not used by the PLA. In terms of orders already achieved, the Pentagon states that, as of May 2025, the FC-31 has no sales. However, it does say that there are “interested clients,” which include Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). The first prototype FC-31 took to the air in 2012 and was followed, in 2016, by a significantly reworked and greatly refined version, which we discussed in detail at the time. More recently, developmental focus has been on the J-35 version for carrier-based service with the PLA Navy. Alongside this, Shenyang has also developed the J-35A, a land-based stealth fighter that has been under development for some time and which publicly emerged late last year. The long-term PLA Air Force plans for the J-35A remain unclear, but the carrier-capable J-35 may well now be in operational PLA Navy service. Since the base design was developed primarily for export, foreign sales are almost certainly still being sought. Somewhat surprising is the fact that the Pentagon doesn’t link Pakistan with a potential FC-31 order. After all, there had been a previous announcement of official Pakistani plans to acquire a land-based version of the jet.

As for Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates, all these nations are known to be looking for new fighters. Egypt was once destined to receive 24 Su-35s from Russia, before the threat of U.S. sanctions and a teased offer of F-15s put an end to that sale. In particular, Washington had said it would put sanctions on Cairo under the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA). In the event, it appears those same Su-35s, or at least some of them, ended up in Algeria. In Saudi Arabia, meanwhile, the FC-31 would join a relatively packed list of competitors for that country’s next batch of fighters. Saudi Arabia was long expected to buy more Eurofighter Typhoons, in a deal that would be brokered by BAE Systems of the United Kingdom. With that potential deal held up by concerns over Saudi human rights abuses, Saudi Arabia entered talks to buy 54 Dassault Rafale fighters, as we reported back in 2023. More recently, Boeing confirmed that it was offering the F-15EX Eagle II to Saudi Arabia, while last month it was reported that the Trump administration was weighing up the sale of up to 48 Lockheed Martin F-35As to the kingdom. Selling the stealth jet to Saudi Arabia would be a significant policy shift, with Washington previously being unwilling to export F-35s to Arab states in the region, for fear of upsetting the strategic balance in relation to Israel. The same applies to the United Arab Emirates, where, like in Saudi Arabia, Beijing seems to be offering its stealthy FC-31 as a direct alternative to the F-35. An arms package for the United Arab Emirates, approved at the end of the previous Trump administration and valued at up to $23.37 billion, included 50 F-35As, among other weapons. In 2021, the Emirati government reportedly said it wanted to scrap the plan, due to concerns over stringent safeguards to protect these systems — somewhat ironically — against Chinese espionage.

For the J-10C, the report notes that the only exports of this type are the 20 units delivered to Pakistan. These are part of two previous orders from Islamabad totaling 36 aircraft since 2020. It’s unclear when the remaining jets are set to be delivered to the Pakistan Air Force. Since entering Pakistani service, the J-10C saw its combat debut in this year’s clashes between India and Pakistan. Many observers pointed to the potentially significant impact made by the jets, especially in conjunction with their much-vaunted PL-15 air-to-air missiles — the latter of which you can read about in depth here. Regardless, China went into overdrive to publicize the claimed success of the J-10C and its Chinese-made missiles in Pakistan Air Force hands. Meanwhile, Egypt, Uzbekistan, Indonesia, Iran, and Bangladesh are all said to have expressed interest in the J-10C. Aside from the aforementioned Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, and Bangladesh are all known to be looking for new fighter equipment. Indonesia signed a contract for the 42 Rafales, which it followed up by announcing plans to buy up to 24 F-15EX fighters, specifically a derivative known as the F-15IND, as you can read more about here. The prospects of a J-10C sale in Iran may be somewhat better. Iran’s geriatric air force has been particularly hobbled by historic arms embargoes and the country’s increasing pariah status in the global community. In the past, Iran has been linked with a potential transfer of Su-35s, which so far hasn’t materialized, while the country’s fighter force almost certainly suffered heavy attrition in the conflict with Israel earlier this year. As for Bangladesh, this country may also now be out of the market for a new fighter. Earlier this month, it was reported that it had signed a letter of intent with Italy’s Leonardo to buy an undisclosed number of Typhoons.

Turning to the JF-17, which is the lowest-end and cheapest offering of the three fighters, has also done the best in terms of exports. As of May 2024, the Pentagon records JF-17 sales to Azerbaijan, Burma, and Nigeria, as well as Pakistan. The report also says that, as of 2024, negotiations were underway regarding a possible JF-17 transfer to Iraq. Iraq is an intriguing candidate customer. Although it has been a keen customer of Chinese arms for many years, the country’s fighter needs would appear to be well met by its Lockheed Martin F-16s — provided they are still operational. Back in 2023, the Pentagon reported that the F-16IQ had become Iraq’s most reliable platform for carrying out airstrikes against ISIS terrorists, at least in part due to a shortage of spare parts for Iraq’s Russian-made attack helicopters as a result of the war in Ukraine. U.S. and Iraqi authorities were said to be looking into the possibility of modernizing the F-16IQ’s notoriously limited air-to-air capabilities. It’s unclear why Iraq might have started to look at buying JF-17s. One possibility is simply to increase the size of its fighter fleet and do it more cheaply, but it’s also possible that Iraq’s F-16s may be suffering from some of the same kinds of problems they did in the past. Indeed, as of 2020, it was announced that the withdrawal of maintenance teams from Iraq meant that its F-16 fleet was at risk of effectively ceasing to exist.

The Chinese military has simulated battles near Mexico and Cuba during a wargaming exercise – a rare insight revealed in a report on state television. Cuba, the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea, along with the Sea of Okhotsk and Taiwan, were among the locations of conflict scenarios visible on screens in a CCTV report on Friday showing People’s Liberation Army wargaming exercises. Despite closer economic ties with countries in the region, China has a minimal military presence in Latin America. But the fact that the PLA is modelling potential conflicts there suggests a shift in the Chinese military’s global ambitions. One screen in the report showed red and blue opposing unit “indicators” – represented by aircraft and ships – manoeuvring near the coasts of Cuba and Mexico. Some of the blue side congregated near Houston, Texas, and headed southeast into the Gulf of Mexico, while the red side was seen in the Caribbean Sea. In a typical PLA drill, the red side usually represents the Chinese military while the blue side is the enemy.

During the CCTV report, a close-up focused on Cuba showed the lines of trajectory of aircraft and ships in the region in what was likely a simulation of a tactical operation. Chinese researchers were seen pointing to the screen and discussing the situation. The footage was recorded at a PLA wargaming event held in Xuchang, Henan province, which was attended by 20 units from across the military and its academies. Dozens of simulation systems were demonstrated – all of them developed in China. The report did not provide further information about any of the conflict scenarios. In another map seen in the report, the red side was shown clustered near Russia’s far eastern coast while blue indicators were positioned over Hokkaido in Japan and the disputed Kuril Islands.

Taiwan also featured at the centre of a map in one of the wargaming systems shown in the report. Beijing sees the self-governed island as part of China, to be reunited by force if necessary. Most countries, including the United States, do not see Taiwan as an independent state, but many oppose any forcible change to the status quo. Washington is also committed to supplying Taiwan with weapons for its defence. With tensions rising in the region in recent years, the PLA has held frequent exercises around Taiwan and also conducted joint training with Russia in the Sea of Okhotsk and the Sea of Japan. The Chinese and Russian air forces held a joint patrol earlier this month, with two Russian Tu-95 bombers flying across the Sea of Japan to join two Chinese H-6 bombers over the East China Sea. That came after Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi enraged Beijing by suggesting last month that Japan could intervene militarily in the event of a conflict in the Taiwan Strait.

The CCTV report also showed the PLA simulating an air battle between Chinese J-16 fighters and French-made Rafale fighter jets. Details of PLA war games are rarely revealed – they are usually highly classified. According to the CCTV report, the wargaming event aimed to “help commanders learn how to fight without engaging in actual combat by creating a low-cost, immersive and repeatable adversarial environment”. It said the PLA’s wargaming systems covered land, sea, air, space and electromagnetic domains, with integrated cutting-edge technologies such as AI-powered models, big data analytics and real-time simulation engines.