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“The use of migration as a weapon has become a serious and persistent hybrid threat,” said European Commissioner for Defense Andrius Kubilius on July 7, warning that Russia’s tactics now pose “new challenges for the whole EU.”
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Libya is now a key front in this strategy.
Moscow’s growing influence in Libya is giving the Kremlin leverage over migrant routes across the Mediterranean, European officials say.
EU Migration Commissioner Magnus Brunner and officials from Italy, Greece, and Malta traveled to Libya on July 8 to urge tighter migration controls—but were reportedly denied entry due to a “protocol issue.”
Just days earlier, more than 1,200 migrants arrived in Crete and Gavdos from Libya and were placed in temporary camps.
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Western intelligence considers Russia’s actions in Africa—especially in Libya—the second-most urgent threat after its war in Ukraine.
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Russia’s use of migration as a weapon isn’t new. Back in 2021, Russia and Eurasia Studies Centre had reported that “the build-up of migrants at the Polish border is completely artificial and has been caused by the Kremlin as part of its campaign of hybrid warfare against the West.”
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The Kremlin’s claim that it has nothing to do with the migrant crisis is as much Russian disinformation as its long-standing denial that Russian security forces are operating in Ukraine. – Taras Kuzio, Russia and Eurasia Studies Centre
Project Syndicate reports:
Libyan National Army commander and self-proclaimed “field marshal” Khalifa Haftar is a warlord with no formal or legal authority, yet he wields brutal control over eastern and southern Libya with Russia’s backing. In recent years, the family has ensured that Russian bases are as effective at extracting wealth as they are at importing military assets.
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In many ways, Libya and the Haftar alliance are the linchpin of Putin’s new foreign-policy strategy. Known as the “Karaganov doctrine” after Russian political scientist Sergei Karaganov, this strategy portrays Russia as an anti-colonial liberator intent on democratizing the global order by rallying non-Western countries against the West. The irony, of course, is that Russia’s anti-colonial project is built on war crimes, coups, and the extraction of African wealth to benefit Russian elites.
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In February, members of the Haftar family traveled to Minsk, where they finalized an agreement to develop the port of Tobruk. Landlocked Belarus may seem like an unlikely partner for a port-development project, but the true value of the deal lies in giving Russia effective control over a new Mediterranean harbor and propping up a loyal ally.
While it is hardly surprising that Russia would exploit Libya’s geostrategic position and oil wealth, it is less clear why Europe has allowed the Kremlin to establish a foothold on its doorstep. European governments must act swiftly before the threat becomes even harder to contain.
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