well…the us is not the same as before, and china is not the same as wwii, so things looks heavy for taiwan if china gets serious. the us would try to sell it as another ukraine (as in “evil communist imperialist tries to annex an innocent and smaller democracy, so we have to stop china and the communism”) but the west is pretty dependant on china right now
China has already been conducting military exercises around Taiwan, I don’t think the US navy can get close enough to help at this point. If China wants to take Taiwan by force I think they will certainly be able to do it.
However, what will the US do once they lose most of their ability to manufacture semiconductors? Seriously this will be like going back to the stone age for them, will they be forced to do something crazy? It’s not like they have the ability to move production, and I expect that China will act to counter capital flight if it is serious about taking Taiwan.
If Taiwan doesn’t fall completely in the first 48h or so, and the US feels ready for the conflict (which I’d expect them to if there’s a war) what will happen is that they’ll interdict shipping to and from China using anti-ship missiles, which will also make any naval landing difficult. So I expect China to either sucessfully land quickly (and thus, win) or not at all.
Also they’ll most certainly bomb TSMC into the stone age, but I haven’t seen evidence that this is, explicitly, part of the strategy.
There’s also reason to believe that they’ll get occupied Korea and Japan to help, but what exactly their role, other than providing weapons and munitions from their stockpiles, is unclear.
I found this Business Insider Article discussing the possibility of destroying chip factories that was pushed 2 years ago.
China gets Taiwan. The US isn’t starting a nuclear war over some small island off China’s coast with the remnants of China’s former government. IIRC Taiwan denuclearized already some decades ago at the behest of the US, but I think China would greatly prefer a voluntary reunification, and IIRC that’s what it’s on the way to politically with the Taiwanese parliament.
Of course the US security state will hand wring over “Chinese/Communist Imperialism” (lol the fucking gall), and maybe use it to stir up jingoism at home for whatever war they want and have some meager chance at winning (Iran maybe?) if they waste enough lumpen lives on it and will also take the opportunity to drive down proletariat material conditions under its guise because they can’t realistically maintain the conditions they’ve had while maintaining bourgeois gains without more empire.
Do you think that there’s a chance there could be a small guerilla movement supported by the US in Taiwan if China takes over
Maybe. It’s definitely something the US has a history of, but is Taiwan’s current state even popular enough to support that kind of movement?
They could try but with the way China’s routed out so many CIA assets on the homelands I feel any movement in Taiwan would get outed pretty quick.
Could you expand on the section about “thats what it’s on its way too in the Taiwanese parliament”?
Here’s a great overview of the current political conflict in Taiwan from someone living there: https://m.youtube.com/live/DU0LSsWBtx8
The pro-US DPP is losing popularity because their independence stance is hurting the economy (because China is Taiwan’s largest trading parter, so cutting it off for the US is fucking stupid). All the DPP does is yell about independence and the China threat while Taiwan’s econony is stagnating and living costs are increasing.
In response, a former DPP-aligned mayor Ko Wenje broke away and founded his own party, the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) in 2019. The party positions itself as centrist, but in practice votes with the KMT more often.
In the most recent 2024 legislative elections, the DPP got 51 seats and lost its majority, the KMT got 52 seats, and the TPP got 8 seats. Because in practice the TPP votes with the KMT, the DPP essentially does not have control of the legislature anymore. However, the DPP still controls the presidency and executive branch, winning 40% of the vote in the 2024 presidential elections.
In response to the KMT and TPP’s success, the DPP used the executive-controlled prosecutor’s office to arrest Ko Wenje on dubious corruption charges. This had resulted in massive protests against the DPP in Taiwan, denouncing them as anti-democracy.
The DPP has used its US connections to institute a media blackout on the topic. Notice that these protests have almost no visibility in the international media and are only reported on by a select few Taiwanese news outlets. [1] [2]
Wow, if China did that we would be hearing about the ebil xixipee like no other
I found a YouTube link in your comment. Here are links to the same video on alternative frontends that protect your privacy:
Yes! I also is interested in that because I can’t find anything about that anywhere!
See my comment with resources on the topic.
Thanks for your work!
China’s geostrategic situation improves a bit since they will have an easier time projecting naval force.
America will face an international and domestic loss of reputation. Domestically, nothing will change because conservatives don’t care about Taiwan and the liberals are impotent so their opinions have no bearing.
Internationally, American allies will trust America a little less, but anyone with access to a history textbook should already know that trusting America is moronic. America maintains its soft power anyway by controlling other country’s politics.
The most important thing however is what will not happen in the case of peaceful reunification. And that is WW3, which most people seem to predict will happen between and China and America over Taiwan.
Prices of electronics would skyrocket (likely permanently for the west) and there would be shortages. The west would either cut off buying from fabs there immediately leading to a supply crunch or they’d blow them up also leading to a supply crunch but one impacting the mainland as well.
Depends on whether the U.S. can boost it’s own semiconductor manufactuting in time.
And while they’re certainly ready to blow up Taiwanese factories, I also think you overestimate capitalists’ willingness to stick with their public stances in the event that they can’t produce enough on their own. The west is still buying Russian nuclear fuel. And gas. And oil. And fertilizers… And Russia is still selling.
Let’s just say that if China finds the need to act martially, we would have a new record on the shortest war.
On what would happen next, i think the usual western chirping denouncing Chinese imperialism etc but not much actual action.
The west will sanction China on everything they can for daring to defy their supremacy only to find out that it will be an economic suicide that will dwarf their current disastrous sanction campaign against Russia.
