This is a message of doomerism but also optimism and hope for the future.

The Stick

The world has changed, and in my opinion if you are a Canadian living in the US you ought to start making plans to come back home or go elsewhere. Not for our sake, but for yours. Perhaps for people living in America there is be a sense of normalcy and complacency. Let’s fire up r/murderedbywords with some clever remark and turn on Jon Stewart and get a good laugh in about how dumb Republicans are and how smart you are. Four more years and we’ll get 'em. Oh I’m so embarrassed about what my country is doing, I’m so sorry.

But on the outside we are seeing a different picture. We see an America in a sharp decline and in hasty retreat from anything positive they may have once stood for. There is an unbridled fury at America for allying with murderous dictators, threatening and betraying its allies, and leveraging its economic strengths to bully for short-term gains. There is a smaller but not dissimilar rage against the American left for standing idly by while their country and it’s democratic institutions are dismantled piece by piece.

There are worldwide boycotts against American goods and services, and these are picking up steam. The American media you consume may not reflect how just regular everyday Canadians are taking time to studiously check labels and reject things made in American or by American-owned companies. To cancel American-based subscriptions, to move to alternative services that don’t funnel money into America. It is shockingly easy to do this thanks in part to globalization, when you realize that so many “American” products are actually made in China or China and the American bits are just some branding and repackaging.

And if you’re a Canadian living in the US right now, this affects you in a practical way. Because you have enjoyed special treatment for decades, and you have become used to expecting that special treatment. Sure, when a Muslim or Mexican enters the US they may be treated with indignity and without human rights – but not Canadians. You got the white glove treatment, and it was nice. You could pretend that the injustices and indignities weren’t happening because they weren’t happening to you. I know this because I was an ex-pat and this was me too.

But, no more special treatment for Canadians. Now Canadians who make clerical mistakes at the border are getting the same treatment that you’d expect someone from Haiti to get. No benefit of the doubt, no get-out-of-jail-free card, you get thrown in literal chains and held for weeks in barbaric for-profit prisons. Yes, even conventionally attractive, white Canadians. It can’t happen to you, I’m sure part of your gut is telling you. But reality is telling you that it can.

As the world rejects and unites against the US, your status as an outsider will likely make you a target for the fury and hatred of the fascist administration and their many enthusiastic followers. The history of the world has shown that these types of governments have been very successful and manipulating their populations, and there is no reason to believe in American exceptionalism for this. When boycotts global cripple industry, will Americans blame their government for causing this, or will they bend to the propaganda and ally with the “strong man” who tells them they are blameless – or will they blame the foreigners who are more directly hurting them? And YOU are a foreigner, the domestic face of what will be the next scapegoat.

Maybe my doomerism here is wrong. Maybe you can just coast for 4 years and things will magically get better. Maybe someone in America will act against what’s happening. That sure would be nice, and I sincerely hope that’s the case. But it’s far from certain or even in my opinion likely. Your neighbours got a taste of this last time and got a clear roadmap for what would come, and decided that this is the America they wanted.

The Carrot

The case for Canada right now is a complete inversion of all this. Canadians are united with each other and with the broader world in a way that has never happened in my lifetime. There is an uplifting and deeply positive palpable energy to work more closely with Europe, Mexico, Australia, NZ, UK, and other allies around the world. We are building a new economy and a new future, and while uncertain it is also exciting with the possibilities.

Our country is poised for an election, widely expected to take place on Sunday. The current Prime Minister, Mark Carney, is a brilliant man with an amazing resume and has a sharp focus on getting results. He is both an insider who understands how business and the world economy functions, having led the Bank of Canada and Bank of England through crises as well as previously working at Goldman Sachs – but also has an intellectual rejection of unrestricted free markets and the blind faith in markets that has led the western world into the tragic state of wealth inequality we find ourselves in now. Don’t take my word for it, read his book, and I expect you to be as amazed as I am about how unique the opportunity is today with a man like this leading our country. And polls indicate that he will handily win this election.

But the country is bigger than one person and one party, and the likely outcome of this election will have further consequences. Canada’s leading leftist party which has stagnated over the past decade will likely go up for leadership review post-election, and by holding a new leadership contest in this environment of unholy rage and optimism I have real faith that we have a once-in-a-generation opportunity to nominate a leftist of the likes of Tommy Douglas, or Jack Layton, or Bernie Sanders, or a firebrand like Jasmine Crockett or AOC or Charlie Angus. The country is hungry for this in a way that we never have been before.

And Canada will also reject the smarmy MAGA weasel who leads Canada’s Conservative Party, because thanks to the threats pointed at us by America even most of our right wing has seen the consequences of going down the same path. This gives that party also an opportunity to select a new leader who can represent the conservative vision of Canada going forward. They can do some reflection and find someone who has inner strength, intelligence and experience, who doesn’t get pleasure from punching down on vulnerable minorities, and who doesn’t huff American propaganda. Because we all deserve this too.

You don’t have to take my word for this. These are my predictions and you can see them play out or not in the coming weeks and months.

Canada’s economy has been weakened tremendously by the trade war, there’s no downplaying that. As the old proverb/curse says: may you live in interesting times. And the interesting times are here. But with upheaval there is opportunity. Because ending our dependence on America means that we must take some difficult steps to reorganize our way of doing things. It has been easy and convenient to ship our raw materials to the US for them to process in their industries, because the wages and taxes were lower and the regulations less stringent. The inertia from this export-oriented industry was significant, as any disruption would harm workers and companies involved with only an uncertain future benefit.

But now that disruption has arrived and we have no choice but to act, and we are acting. Canada has a tremendous availability of energy and raw materials and an educated population-- and we need new industries to leverage them. We need new retailers to distribute and sell them. We need new importers and exporters to get products to and from our new trading partners. We need new defense contractors, new tradespeople, new media producers, new goddamn everything.

And speaking specifically to my technically inclined friends, we also need non-US versions of the dominant American platforms. The network effect has long kept upstarts from being successful, so this is a likely-rare opportunity to disrupt incumbents such as YouTube, Reddit, Facebook, X, WhatsApp, Visa/Mastercard, Google, Apple, Netflix, and more. Because it’s not just Canada who want this – the services you build will also be welcomed in Europe and beyond. So all that expertise you developed working for these massive American companies and their billionaires to get even richer – you can use those to found your own companies here or elsewhere abroad.

So this is not a doomerism future, not for us. Our elbows are up, we are fighting for ourselves and for the world. And you, my Canadian ex-pat friends, have an opportunity to be part of that.