If we continue to see the private sector as our savior from climate catastrophe, we'll continue to fail.

And the IEA, for its part, expects China to continue to be the sole meaningful over-achiever. It recently revised upwards by 728 GW its forecast for total global renewables capacity additions in the period 2023–27. China’s share of this upward revision? Almost 90 percent. While China surges ahead, the rest of the world remains stuck.

  • MudMan
    32•3 months ago

    This article is a very partisan read of the source material. https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/6b2fd954-2017-408e-bf08-952fdd62118a/Electricity2024-Analysisandforecastto2026.pdf

    Yes, China is ahead of the West in production of renewables, but it’s also skyrocketing (along with India) in energy demands, while the EU and the US remain flat or are going down. Renewables production will offset growth on both the US and China, according to the linked report. China’s forecast for reduction in coal energy generation is actually lower than in the EU and the US.

    China

    Renewable energy sources are expected to meet almost all the increase in electricity demand in our forecast period and start displacing coal-fired generation together with increasing nuclear generation. As a result, we forecast an average annual decline of around 1.5% in coal-fired generation over 2024-2026,

    US

    Renewable generation is forecast to grow annually by 7% on average over the outlook period. The increase in renewables is set to more than offset the additional electricity demand and displace coal-fired generation, which is expected to record a substantial 10% decline on average from 2024-2026. The United States dominates these developments, where around two-thirds of the electricity in the Americas is produced and consumed

    EU

    Over the outlook period, renewable generation is expected to grow at an average rate of around 9%, offsetting all of the additional electricity demand and displacing fossil-fired generation. Coal-fired power fell by around 26% in 2023 and is set to decline at an average 13% from 2024 to 2026. Gas-fired generation fell by 17% in 2023, and is forecast to decline by a further 7% annually to 2026. Nuclear output rose 1.4% last year and is forecast to grow by 2.2% annually to 2026, as the maintenance schedule of the French nuclear fleet progresses, and the reactors Flamanville-3 (France) and Mochovce-4 (Slovakia) commence operations according to announced plans.

    • @CanadaPlus
      5•3 months ago

      Oh, that makes a ton of sense, actually. Replacing capacity is almost always going to be more expensive than just building new capacity.

    • @naturalgasbad@lemmy.ca
      3•3 months ago

      The US numbers are a fucking joke. All the US is doing is replacing coal with natural gas, moving electricity for export, and reporting domestic consumption numbers that completely ignore the blend of input resources.

      US natural gas electricity generation skyrocketed from 1687TWh to 1802TWh (+6.8%) from 2022 to 2023: https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/epm_table_grapher.php?t=table_1_01

      This matches with the 6.8% increase in natural gas consumption for electricity generation from 2022 to 2023: https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/epm_table_grapher.php?t=table_2_04_a

      Through accounting hacks, the US is able to claim that the vast majority of its consumption is actually not from the natural gas it’s burning at obscene quantities to replace coal, but from renewables (and to please ignore skyrocketing energy export numbers).

      This is, mind you, with the consideration that natural gas is methane, that natural gas leaks into the atmosphere, and methane is something like a 85x more potent greenhouse has over a 20-year time frame. This switch from coal to gas has been rather recent, and so it’s expected that we should start seeing the effects of these short-term GHG emissions aroundabout… Today?

      • MudMan
        4•3 months ago

        Cool.

        Not the point, though.

        Again, the original article is about China is outperforming the west because it doesn’t have to deal with all that pesky free enterpriese, and it’s based on rephrasing data from a report in a misleading way.

        I don’t care about the underlying argument, I’m clarifying what the report actually says.

        If you must know, I’m all for decarbonizing energy generation through renewables and more than willing to consider boosting nuclear power. But that has nothing to do with deliberate misrepresentations for political reasons being misleading.

        • @naturalgasbad@lemmy.ca
          0•3 months ago

          Your report claims US gas-fired generation decreased in 2023. It is wrong, and I’ve described why. Your interpretation is even more misleading.

          • MudMan
            2•3 months ago

            It’s not my report.

            It’s the report linked in the article that is misquoting it.

            I don’t know if it’s right or not. I know that it doesn’t say what the article says it says. It doesn’t support claiming the Chinese political system is the only one that can fix climate change.

            That’s as far as I can take it.

            So no, I don’t think my interpretation is “even more misleading”.