China’s Property Crisis Is Starting to Look a Lot Like Japan’s Lost Decade - CEOWORLD magazine
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China’s Property Slump Is Starting to Look Uncomfortably Familiar It is not often that the world’s second‑largest economy finds itself compared, in sober academic work, to Japan on the eve of its “Lost Decade.” Yet that is precisely where China’s real estate sector now sits: in what analysts describe as the middle passage of a […]

cross-posted from: https://lemmy.sdf.org/post/53072462

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[…]

The central risk is not a sudden systemic collapse, but a drawn‑out period of sub‑par growth, weak returns on investment, and fragile confidence—a pattern that will sound familiar to students of Japan’s post‑1990 trajectory.

Several specific challenges stand out:

  • Demographics: An aging, shrinking population caps housing demand and undermines the traditional link between urbanization and construction booms.
  • Balance sheets: Developers, local governments, and some financial institutions face long, grinding deleveraging cycles.
  • Policy trade‑offs: Stimulating housing too aggressively risks re‑inflating the bubble; tightening too hard risks tipping growth into a deeper downturn.
  • Confidence: Once households lose faith in property as a one‑way wealth escalator, rebuilding sentiment can take years.

[…]

  • HotznplotznOPEnglish
    64·
    1 day ago

    China has a homeownership rate that’s half again as big as the US

    This is part of the ongoing misinformation by ml.

    In the 1980s, China ‘formalized’ what is called ‘property rights’ of Chinese people. The government effectively granted citizens lease rights. These lease rights usually have a maturity of several decades (70 years if I remember correctly). However, the Chinese party-state still owns the land, which means the lease rights can be revoked at any time.

    Now, propaganda channels report of high ‘property ownership in China,’ which is simply false. It’s basically some sort of subordination and serfdom: as long as you play by our rules and don’t ‘make trouble’, you can ‘own’ your flat. Just don’t criticize the Party or like the wrong post or something …

    So the story of a high home ownership rate in China complete rubbish.

    • freagle@lemmy.mlEnglish
      51·
      21 hours ago

      Oh Hotz. You’re such a good propagandist, it’s a shame you don’t get paid for it. But you’re just grasping at straws here.

      All land is ultimately held by the sovereign. I can no more sell my house to a foreign government than I can build a foreign military base on it. The sovereign determines the mechanisms by which land can be held. “Ownership” in the US is defined by English Common Law. China doesn’t follow English Common Law, so of course their definition of “ownership” will be different. Remember that “ownership” is a made up concept and a made up word that only has meaning within specific legal frameworks and the meaning is defined by those legal frameworks.

      In China, “ownership” has time limits, and those time limits are essentially one human lifespan. This is a solution to the inheritance problem that people in the US are still trying to figure out how to solve. Instead of a definition of ownership like in Common Law where I can get Title to a Parcel of Real Property and then I can Transfer Title of that Real Property to a Trust and then have that Trust Administer the Real Property for all of my children and their children and their children, China’s system says you can own it for a generation and then it’s up for review.

      This prevents winner-take-all economics. This prevents financial speculation reducing the housing supply. This prevents tax dodging and other anti-social behaviors.

      It’s the Chinese legal system’s mechanism of ownership. Just because it’s not English Common Law doesn’t mean it’s lying, propaganda, subordination, or serfdom.

      You’re really grasping at straws and hoping it works to convince people but all you do is prove to our shared audience that you are irrational, driven by something other than truth, and ultimately that what you say cannot be trusted

    • Alcoholicorn@mander.xyzEnglish
      52·
      1 day ago

      And in nearly every other country the government will take your home if you don’t pay your property taxes or they decide they want to eminent domain it.

      You’re just being weirdly orientalizing about an incredibly common concept.

      • HotznplotznOPEnglish
        35·
        1 day ago

        I don’t think you have read my comment.

        • Alcoholicorn@mander.xyzEnglish
          51·
          1 day ago

          You didn’t read or understand mine. You own your property in China the same way you own it in western countries. You have to pay to continue to own it in both countries, and they’re able to force you to sell if they want to build a highway where your house is, just like in western countries.

          • AceOnTrack@lemmy.blahaj.zoneEnglish
            33·
            1 day ago

            I can’t lose my home for criticizing the government. I can fight an eminent domain claim and be compensated properly.

            • Alcoholicorn@mander.xyzEnglish
              51·
              1 day ago

              Same is true in China, they have laws lmao.

              I can’t lose my home for criticizing the government.

              Also you kinda can, eminent domain has famously been used against entire populations that a mayor, governor, or urban planner simply didn’t like.

          • HotznplotznOPEnglish
            46·
            1 day ago

            You own your property in China the same way you own it in western countries.

            No, this is simply wrong.