NBC News’ Decision Desk has characterized the Alaska Senate race as likely Democratic. GOP Sen. Dan Sullivan currently trails Peltola, with both under the 50% mark.
Former Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola is likely to win Alaska’s Senate race, according to an NBC News Decision Desk analysis, as vote-counting continues in the state.
Peltola has expanded her narrow lead over Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan with each new batch of votes reported this week. A “likely” characterization indicates that the NBC News Decision Desk has at least 95% confidence that Peltola will win the race.
If Peltola wins, Democrats will have a 56-44 majority in the Senate next year.
With >95% of the votes in:
- Mary Peltola (D) is at 49.8% (138,240)
- Dan S. Sullivan ® at 46.1% (127,828)
- Gerald L. Heikes ® at 2.1% (5885)
- Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. (I) at 1.6% (4560)
- and write-ins at 0.3% (855)
Not to mention that when 75% of the votes were counted, there was no huge break for the Big Sullivan in ranked-choice.
“>95%” at this point is conservative – which, to be clear, I’m glad decision desks exercise caution. Outright 50% majority at this point, I’m not so sure, but ranked-choice seems exceedingly likely if it comes down to it.
Just, of course, stating my personal opinion regarding the current count, having been keeping up with it.
Edit: Peltola just climbed to 49.9% 40 minutes ago. Now 140,637 to Big Sullivan’s 129,424.
Fuck yes!!! 🙌
Those poll workers still on the job counting votes are probably starting to get pretty resentful about her opponent still not conceding.
Conceding an election is just a polite convention. All votes still need to be counted.
With Alaska’s ranked choice voting, once they start counting preferences (second, third choice) there’s potential for those numbers to change dramatically.
- There’s no reason for the Big Sullivan to concede; it would be a beyond-stupid move when no decision desks have called it.
- Conceding doesn’t mean the poll workers stop counting votes. There still needs to be an official total. And even if it goes to ranked-choice on the 18th, that’s all computerized.
I think people get this deeply mistaken idea that decision desk calls, concessions, etc. somehow freeze the count and codify the result, but they don’t. At best, a candidate conceding is a tacit promise that they won’t contest the results by e.g. seeking a recount.
They finish counting concession or no, if the candidate dies, etc. There needs to be an official count.
