A reminder that as the US continues to threaten countries around the world, fedposting is to be very much avoided (even with qualifiers like “in Minecraft”) and comments containing it will be removed.

An image of Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan, c. February, where Iranian strikes have caused substantial damage and several US soldier deaths and casualties.


My weekly preamble is in spoiler tags below.

preamble

After an uncertain beginning to this second major period of hostilities, we can now see the overall plan for either side.

For the Americans, their fire has been primarily focussed on southern Iran, where they have been attempting to break Iran’s control of Hormuz by a steady campaign of striking both military and civilian sites. Additionally, it looks like the US is attempting to shape the battlefield around Bandas Abbas and Qeshm Island for some kind of incursion, as we have seen bridges and tunnels in the vicinity struck by missiles. The key word there is “attempting”, because there are several things wrong with this plan both tactically and strategically.

Tactically, Iran has demonstrated the ability to very quickly get their transportation infrastructure repaired, and the US simply isn’t firing volleys in the required amounts - and towards the right targets (they’re using several missiles on purely civilian targets, like fishing boats) - to meaningfully degrade Iranian control of even this sector of the coastline. Additionally, an amphibious assault on Qeshm Island in the style of the WW2 Pacific theater is essentially impossible unless Iran, for whatever reason, allowed it. The gauntlet that any ship holding Marines would have to run to get to the island precludes this, let alone also transporting heavy weaponry and materiel for resupply. Using helicopter-borne troops or paratroopers would be much more feasible, but runs into even greater logistical problems if the US wanted to do anything there other than a brief skirmish before withdrawing. Strategically, even if the US waved a magic wand and took Qeshm Island, it’s unclear what this would do to fulfill war aims. The most obvious intention would be to trade it back to Iran in return for a major Iranian concession, but what if you take the island, you call up Iran saying “Alright, let’s get this deal running! First, I want no Hormuz tolls–” and Iran just… hung up, and kept firing drones and missiles and artillery at your forces on the island until they either all died or were forced to retreat? It’s not a tenable position to hold, and Iran’s capabilities to affect shipping in Hormuz are obviously not all concentrated on one single island.

So, what is Iran’s strategy? It’s what one analyst (Amerikanets) has termed “debasification”. If the first phase of the war from late February to mid-April was focussed primarily on generally destroying and disrupting the US’s military infrastructure in the region, what this second phase has planned is something more like a region-wide missile advance. Starting from the Gulf states and their US bases, the plan is to push back American planes and soldiers to further and further afield bases and thereby make sorties against Iran take much more time, fuel, and use more resupply planes. Iranian strikes are, as of me writing this, concentrated on Jordan, where a recent Iranian strike caused the first admission of soldier deaths in quite some time. The Iranian goal is clearly to push back all US planes to at least the Zionist entity, by which point, unless they are withdrawn further back all the way to Europe, the planes will all be so concentrated on so few bases that it will become a physical impossibility to get them all scrambled before Iranian strikes hit. Compared to the US’s strategy, Iran’s is immediately bearing fruit, with US strikes already very limited in intensity compared to the first phase of the war months ago. The irony of the US breaking off negotiations - again! - to pursue a new strategy that already looks to be profoundly failing is truly some inspired stuff; the genocidal architects of American imperium in the mid-20th century are rolling in their graves.


Last week’s thread is here.
The Imperialism Reading Group is here.

Please check out the RedAtlas!

The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.

The Zionist Entity's Genocide of Palestine

If you have evidence of Zionist crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA reports on the Zionists’ destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

Mirrors of Telegram channels that have been erased by Zionist censorship.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don’t want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it’s just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists’ side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR’s former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR’s forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster’s telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a ‘propaganda tax’, if you don’t believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


  • Redcuban1959 [any]@hexbear.netM
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    4 小时前

    CENTCOM announces that the latest wave of U.S. airstrikes on Iran has concluded They hit most southern towns as they did in previous days, as well as Tabriz and some cities in Khuzestan.

    • Middle East Spectator
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    9 小时前

    The fourth American soldier eliminated by Iran, while trying to disarm a downed drone in Erbil, has been identified as Sgt. Michael Swinton, 30-years old

    • Middle East Spectator
  • Redcuban1959 [any]@hexbear.netM
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    9 小时前

    Cuba thanks Open Arms organization for its help - Prensa Latina

    Article

    Havana, July 21 (Prensa Latina) Cuban Foreign Minister Bruno Rodríguez today thanked the Spanish organization Open Arms, internationally recognized for its rescues of migrants in open waters, for its solidarity aid.

    “We thank the Open Arms organization for its ‘Heading to Cuba’ campaign which, together with more than 150 organizations, allowed the arrival in our country of material aid for the Juan Manuel Márquez Pediatric Hospital,” the Foreign Minister wrote on the social network X.

    “This example of international solidarity demonstrates that Cuba is not alone in the face of the suffocation and the US blockade,” he added.

    As part of the Rumbo a Cuba project, the aid arrived in the country last Sunday on the Astral sailboat, belonging to the aforementioned solidarity group, which is trying to break the fence imposed by the economic, commercial and financial blockade of the US Government.

    The delivery includes a kit of 22 solar panels that will begin to be installed immediately in a process that is expected to take three weeks.

    This energy will be primarily used for ventilation and, in the event of power outages lasting more than 10 hours, it can also recharge a dozen batteries also donated by the activists, which will initially ensure the operation of the ventilators.

    Along with the shipment, which also contains medical supplies and equipment, school and scientific literature, Oscar Camps, director of Open Arms, delivered a folder of drawings and letters from Spanish children intended for the children currently being treated at the health institution.

  • Redcuban1959 [any]@hexbear.netM
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    9 小时前

    Iran promises a decisive response to any hostile attack - Prensa Latina

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    Tehran, July 21 (Prensa Latina) The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) affirmed today that it will respond decisively and unforgettablely to any aggression against the security, independence and sovereignty of Iran.

    In a statement, the military institution noted that the country’s security, independence, and dignity are sustained through faith, national unity, combat readiness, deterrence capabilities, and the superiority of intelligence services.

    The IRGC reiterated its commitment to confront any attack against Iranian territory or what it called “enemy adventures”.

    The statement comes amid the confrontation between the United States and Iran, which entered its second week after the collapse of the temporary ceasefire in early July.

    Since the resumption of hostilities, Washington has launched successive waves of attacks against military installations and infrastructure in Iranian territory.

    Tehran responded with missiles and drones against targets it identifies as US bases and facilities in several countries in the region.

    The escalation caused disruptions to navigation through the Strait of Hormuz and increased threats to air traffic and energy supplies.

    The situation is further marked by intermittent airspace closures and warnings of further attacks against US facilities and interests inside and outside the Middle East.

  • Redcuban1959 [any]@hexbear.netM
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    9 小时前

    Controversial Chilean government mega-reform moves forward, but must wait - Prensa Latina

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    Santiago, Chile, July 21 (Prensa Latina) The Chilean Chamber of Deputies today approved the bulk of the controversial economic mega-reform proposed by the government of José Antonio Kast, but some issues remain pending for the first weeks of August.

    The law, also known as the Reconstruction Law, plans to reduce taxes for large companies from 27 to 23 percent and obliges the next six governments to keep that tax regime unchanged.

    In total, 27 of the 28 sections contained in the initiative promoted by the Minister of Finance, Jorge Quiroz, were approved this Tuesday, but there was one with an adverse vote and now a joint bicameral commission must be formed to analyze it.

    This is the fiscal compensation mechanism for the Municipal Common Fund, an issue that arose from La Moneda’s decision to eliminate the payment of property taxes for all those over 65 years of age, regardless of the value of the property.

    Aside from the discriminatory bias of the proposal, which mainly benefits the owners of large and valuable mansions, the mayors protested because part of that revenue is used to finance the budget of the municipalities, in areas such as education, health and security.

    A joint committee of the Senate and the Chamber of Deputies must now be formed to decide on the matter, but that will not happen until the first or second week of August.

    Tomorrow is the last day of Congress sessions and the agenda is practically full, and, in addition, from July 27 to 31 is the so-called District Week, or field work week for the deputies, who hope to be in their provinces because of the environmental disaster that is happening in the country.

    On the other hand, there are four points in the mega-reform that President Kast can veto, using his constitutional powers.

    This concerns the right to be forgotten financially for debts that have already expired and the guarantee for payment within 30 days for services or subsidies to small and medium-sized enterprises.

    Also included is the prohibition of cutting off basic services for non-payment by users in regions devastated by natural disasters or forest fires, and, finally, the impediment of charging interest on overdue interest, a practice also called compound interest.

    Another obstacle to the enactment of the so-called National Reconstruction Law is the decision by several center and left-wing political parties to take the initiative to the Constitutional Court.

  • ThomasMuentzer [he/him]@hexbear.net
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    10 小时前

    I somehow complettly missed out the whole UK elections Drama in this vibrant Democracy - Wierd - a “Andy Burham” won.

    first thing he did was opening UK bases for US Strikes on Iran.

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    Intel Hexbear - Lots of RAF activity tonight out of Lossiemouth: warplanes, tankers, one Atlas transport flying south low with no active transponders.

    Edit: Took Kid Starvers replacement less than 24 hours in office to permit the US operations out of UK bases.

  • companero [he/him]@hexbear.net
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    AP: Ukraine’s Zelenskyy fires military chief after protests and names a replacement

    President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Tuesday fired Gen. Oleksandr Syrskyi as commander-in-chief of Ukraine’s armed forces, following days of mass protests in Kyiv and other cities nationwide demanding his removal.

    Zelenskyy appointed Mykhailo Drapatyi as the new army chief, according to a statement on social media.

    Anyone have any nuanced info on Drapaty? Looking at his rosy NATOpedia page, it looks like he fits the bill.

  • Tervell [he/him]@hexbear.net
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    https://xcancel.com/caitoz/status/2079571051705766360

    Finance Minister Smotrich after the lengthy security discussion last night: “The State of Israel has no interest in joining the contained confrontation between Iran and the United States — the current situation is the best one for us.”

    https://xcancel.com/CIVIC_ACTUAL/status/2079623849755176994

    Couple missiles hit Jordan, and suddenly Haaretz is all “We cannot sacrifice Israeli children to America’s reckless wars. Israel is not America’s puppet! The good people of Israel have no quarrel with the noble people of Iran nor her brave missileers”

    “missileer” is a cool new word to add to my dictionary, there should be more <noun>-eer words for “person who does/uses <noun>”, musketeer, mountaineer, charioteer, carabineer, they’re all great words! anyone remember The Rocketeer?

  • Lovely_sombrero [he/him]@hexbear.net
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    12 小时前

    Iranian unofficial channels say that B-2 bombers are also on the way towards Iran. We already saw pictures of B-1 bombers taking off in the UK. They will probably use any remaining GBU-57 bunker buster bombs.

  • Tervell [he/him]@hexbear.net
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    13 小时前

    https://archive.ph/N8ymQ

    Pentagon hiding missile shortage from White House, insiders fear

    Sources say ‘culture of silence’ has taken hold as defence secretary gains reputation for purging senior military figures

    more

    The US president is under pressure to hit back at Iran after the deaths of three US service members over the weekend. But rumours are spreading across the administration that the Pentagon is concealing a shortage of interceptor missiles, which are needed to resume the war. There are also suggestions that the White House does not want to know about the scale of the shortfall. Sharing “bad news, or realistic news, doesn’t seem to end well for anybody”, an insider told The Telegraph. Another said a “culture of silence” was causing problems for Pete Hegseth, the US defence secretary. Analysis by the Royal United Services Institute in March calculated the US and its allies had burned through more than 11,000 munitions in the first 16 days of war, and predicted they were a month away from running out of critical munitions. Mr Trump has put the US on a war footing in recent days, suggesting the war on Tehran could resume with greater ferocity and on a greater scale than before. Following the deaths of two US service members at an air base in Jordan, and a third in Iraq, the president declared on Monday: “Every time Iran kills an American soldier they will pay for that killing many times over!” Mr Trump, writing on social media, said he had passed that directive to Mr Hegseth, Dan Caine, the chairman of the joint chiefs of staff, and other military leaders.

    F-35 and F-16 fighter jets, from bases in Britain and Germany, have reportedly been deployed to the Middle East, while aerial refuelling aircraft are said to be on the way. The US has recently struck bridges around Bandar Abbas, one of Iran’s few major ports. Mr Trump has repeatedly threatened to hit Iran’s civilian infrastructure, but has stepped back from the brink until now. US forces had largely concentrated their fire on Iranian targets along the coast, but after the ceasefire collapsed last week, targets have moved inland. One source said the Pentagon was growing convinced that the way to unblock the Strait of Hormuz was by escalating the conflict and becoming more aggressive. Masoud Pezeshkian, the Iranian president, said on Monday his country was engaged in a “full-scale war”, but questions are being raised about whether the US is prepared to resume a fully fledged conflict. A ceasefire came into effect in early April and, although marred by tit-for-tat strikes between the US and Iran, helped conserve munitions supplies. But the reported shortage would undermine any attempts from the US side to escalate, and pose an increasing risk to American troops. Ryan Brobst, of the Foundation for Defence of Democracies, said there were particular concerns about US stocks of Terminal High Altitude Area Defence (Thaad) interceptors and Patriot Advanced Capability-3 (Pac-3) missiles. “The main effect of depleting air and missile defence stockpiles is that you assume more risk to forces being targeted,” he said. “So, for example, you would launch one interceptor at an incoming missile instead of two interceptors at an incoming missile, which would then decrease the probability that you actually intercept it.” The US military’s stockpile of Tomahawk and Thaad missiles have plummeted since Operation Epic Fury. Projections by the Centre for Strategic and International Studies suggest it will take until 2031 to restore Tomahawk stocks to pre-Epic Fury levels and 2029 for Thaads.

    US stockpiles are a closely guarded secret within the administration, with relatively few people having access to the information. The question now being raised is whether they are being kept fully informed. There is concern that members of the Pentagon are reluctant to deliver frank assessments to Mr Hegseth that potentially leave them exposed and in the line of fire. Some are now questioning whether the administration’s moves to escalate the war are being made with a clear-eyed assessment of the military realities and the risk to American troops. A source told The Telegraph that a culture of silence had taken hold as Mr Hegseth had acquired a reputation for purging senior members of the military. “I question how honest the Pentagon is being with [Mr Hegseth] or the White House, since bad news, or realistic news, doesn’t seem to end well for anybody,” the individual said. “Everybody is doing the best they can to keep the [department] running as efficiently as possible for the sake of our troops, in spite of the chaos factor above us – and also keep our heads in the process.” Another source said: “This culture of silence has been a problem [for Hegseth] since he shrunk his circle to just a handful of individuals. “When he advises the president, or when he goes to Congress, he doesn’t have full information because his top aides are trying to stay off his radar.” Mike Duffey, who would take a key role in replenishing missile stock as the Pentagon’s under-secretary for acquisition, is a “nice guy” but “very loath to bring bad news to Pete” and “pretty much stays out of his orbit”, the source added.

    A US official told the Washington Post that the US was “planning for a wider war” but that this would be limited by dwindling stockpiles of air defences and long-range munitions. “We do not have enough to safely sustain operations, and I don’t think the White House is aware of that,” the official said. It is not the first time that the Pentagon has been accused of a lack of transparency in how it is conducting the war. The department did not disclose three strikes against US forces last week, which injured dozens of US soldiers and damaged several helicopters, according to The New York Times. The Pentagon insisted the military had not withheld or misrepresented US casualties in the war. “Claims of concealment are fabrications meant to further distress the American people in the wake of three service members killed in action,” said Sean Parnell, its chief spokesman. Last Tuesday, Democrats blocked the $1.15tn (£860bn) defence bill known as the National Defence Authorisation Act, complaining that Congress had been left in the dark by the Trump administration. Anna Kelly, a White House spokesman, insisted the military had enough stockpiles of munitions. “The United States military has more than enough munitions, ammo, and stockpiles to serve all of President Trump’s strategic goals and beyond, and Operation Epic Fury has exposed what happens when you mess with the United States,” she said. “Even still, the president has urged our defence contractors to constantly produce more made in America weapons, which are the best in the world. Democrats destroyed our military, but President Trump rebuilt it.”

    https://xcancel.com/ParacelsusII/status/2079627962878484489

    is iran about to literally exhaust the us war machine because everyone is afraid to tell trump stocks are running out?

    tito-laugh stonks-down

  • Lovely_sombrero [he/him]@hexbear.net
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    13 小时前

    The Telegraph independently corroborating WaPo’s story from two days ago that the White House is not being told about the scale of munition shortages

    Very funny!

    But rumours are spreading across the administration that the Pentagon is concealing a shortage of interceptor missiles, which are needed to resume the war. There are also suggestions that the White House does not want to know about the scale of the shortfall.

    Analysis by the Royal United Services Institute in March calculated the US and its allies had burned through more than 11,000 munitions in the first 16 days of war, and predicted they were a month away from running out of critical munitions.

  • InevitableSwing [none/use name]@hexbear.net
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    12 小时前

    NYT - Hegseth and Caine to appear before senators to seek [~$80 billion more] for the Iran war.

    Longish update

    Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Gen. Dan Caine, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, are set to appear Tuesday before the Senate Appropriations Committee to defend the Trump administration’s strategy for the Iran war and to ask for more money to fund it.

    The Pentagon is seeking about $80 billion to cover the costs of the conflict and replenish depleted weapons stocks.

    Mr. Hegseth and General Caine have not publicly talked about the conflict in depth since their last news conference in early May. At the time, Iranian leaders and the Trump administration had reached a cease-fire intended to pave the way for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and setting the terms for talks over Iran’s nuclear program.

    On July 8, President Trump declared that cease-fire over, and hostilities have resumed with real costs to American soldiers. Late last week an Iranian attack on a base in Jordan killed two U.S. soldiers and left another soldier missing. The strike was the fourth in five days on U.S. troops in Jordan.

    The flurry of attacks and the losses they have caused are a sign that Iranian forces not only still have ample missile stocks but have also become more adept at evading U.S. air defense systems, U.S. officials have said.

    The attacks also injured dozens of U.S. service members and damaged several helicopters — losses the Pentagon was slow to disclose.

    Mr. Hegseth and General Caine are expected to be asked about the recent attacks and the strategy behind the military’s resumption of strikes in Iran.

    “Every time Iran kills an American Soldier they will pay for that killing many times over!” Mr. Trump wrote Monday on social media. “This directive has been passed on to Secretary of War, Pete Hegseth, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Daniel Caine, and every Leader in the Military.”

    On Tuesday, Mr. Trump told reporters that the U.S. military would soon be hitting Pickaxe Mountain, home to an underground Iranian nuclear site that experts say has been under construction since 2020. Mr. Trump has also suggested that he would order the military to expand strikes on Iranian bridges and electrical infrastructure.

    A big question likely to be raised by Democratic lawmakers is whether such strikes constitute war crimes.

    The biggest challenge for Mr. Hegseth and General Caine will be explaining their plan for reopening the Strait of Hormuz. The strait’s recent closure by Iran has sent gas prices soaring again, and there’s little sign that the U.S. military can reopen the critical shipping choke point without committing ground troops, a risk that Mr. Trump for now seems unwilling to take.

    In past unpopular wars, like Iraq and Afghanistan, Republicans and Democrats have been unwilling to cut off funds for fear of leaving U.S. troops vulnerable. It remains to be seen if lawmakers take such a step with Iran.

  • FortifiedAttack [any]@hexbear.net
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    13 小时前

    Oh my god, a news report in my country just banged on about how the protests in Ukraine show how great of a democracy it is. i-cant

    Yeah, I’m sure a bunch of clueless Thiel puppets protesting against their Techno-Wunderwaffen genius Fedorov getting shown the door is a wonderful example of democracy, in a system where any real political opposition has been banned and the president is already serving 2 years over his elected term.

    The report then goes on to state how Fedorov’s strategies have “turned the tide of the battle, the Russians have been stalled completely!”. Yes. Of course. That’s why he’s being kicked out, right??? i-love-not-thinking

    And THEN they interview a random protestor and he says, paraphrased: “I’m protesting because Fedorov was digitalizing the frontline. I support full digitalization of the front.” agony-acid

    I can’t believe what the RWAPodcast guys on Twitter were saying was actually 100% accurate. This is fucking insane no-i-in-pezza

    If they actually kick out Syrskyi then we might just see a complete collapse in Ukraine due to techbro AI brainworms. sicko-flipped