cross-posted from: https://lemmy.sdf.org/post/56029120

Latest five-year plan omits figure for jobs growth, a fixture of economic planning, for first time in decades.

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China has declined to set a target for urban employment for the next half-decade, the first time it has not done so in decades, amid signs of growing pressures across the world’s second-largest economy.

A five-year plan released by the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security on Thursday said only that China would “maintain” new urban job jobs of “a considerable scale”, without offering a specific number.

The previous six such plans set targets of new urban jobs in the tens of millions for each five-year period. The most recent plan, for 2021-2025, aimed for more than 55mn new jobs.

The omission of the target, a fixture of economic planning since the 1990s, comes amid a sharp slowdown in overall urban employment growth in recent years.

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Urbanisation has been a critical engine of China’s growth for decades, as the economy shifted away from agriculture and the factories and construction sites of its booming cities swelled with migrant workers.

But the country’s roaring property sector entered a slump in 2021 from which it has yet to emerge, and persistent deflationary pressures have reflected weak consumer demand.

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Labour market indicators, such as urban vs rural jobs, point to wider challenges across the job market.

One such indicator from the National Bureau of Statistics showed that out of about 180mn rural migrant workers who sought work last year — probably mainly in cities — 49mn returned to their villages, a sign that they could not find work in urban areas.

“The share of the workforce engaged in agriculture rose for only the second time in decades, as fewer urban job opportunities pushed more people into farming,” said Gavekal Dragonomics analyst Ernan Cui in a report.

Chris Beddor, deputy China research director at Gavekal, said: “When we look at these other ancillary indicators, very clearly it shows that there’s been a shock to the labour market.”

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In 2023, China also discontinued reporting of youth unemployment data after the metric rose to 21 per cent. It later reinstated the data series under a new methodology and at a lower rate.

The gig economy has also drawn scrutiny, where an estimated tens of millions pursue informal work such as ride-hailing and delivery driving.

Shenzhen, the southern tech hub, said at the end of May its ride-hailing industry was saturated.

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