That is the problem with refinery strikes: the military gets fuel first and so you can’t stop attacks by taking them out.
Refinery strikes only work if the people can put enough pressure on the government to get them to stop. Time will tell, but I’m not hopeful in the case of Russia.
Well when everyone in Russia suddenly can’t make it to work due to car dependency (as we’ve been seeing on their social media posts) the country and economy will grind to a halt.
You are on the right track, but it isn’t near that bad. Russia gasoline is down a lot, but there is gas, people will need to learn to adjust, but just car pool and less “leisure” driving would ensure there is enough gas. People don’t want to do this because it sucks, but they will because they have to. Moscow also has a good transit system.
Again, people are hurting and this will harm the economy. However it won’t directly force an end to the war. (indirectly it could if people have enough power to force the issue - but I’m not convinced)
Then the war will continue. I feel like if this won’t change the Russians mentality, nothing short of full obliteration will.
My understanding of why they target refineries etc. is to reduce income for the Russian state. Every $1B burned is missed income that translates directly into less funding for the military and pressure on the state for all other things needs to pay for. It’s something that takes months or even more than a year to become visible because finances and budgets move slowly, but it will become noticable at the frontline and behind, e.g. due to degraded, irreplacable air defenses.
