damn already 10 years?

Brexit was always an economic trade-off.

It pretty obviously was, except the Brexit campaign lied about it, and claimed it would even be beneficial, because EU would be forced to accept trade with UK on similar terms, because they claimed EU needed UK more than UK needed EU.
And on top of keeping trade with EU, UK would be free to negotiate better deals with USA and many other countries.

The Brexit campaign was a lie, which even the dimmest Brit should be able to see now.
I personally warned about this, roughly estimating an economic decline of 1% per year for the foreseeable future, compared to remaining in EU. And now after 10 years the decline has been estimated at 8%.

The effect has not been a sudden collapse

This too is exactly as expected, but unfortunately the decline doesn’t seem to have leveled out yet. But I think the point where it will is not too many years into the future. But when I warned about the economic results of Brexit, I warned exactly that the harm would accumulate over many years, and probably reach about 10% in 10 years.

My estimate now is that Brexit will still have a negative effect even after 10 years, but only about half the next 10 years of what it was the first 10. So the ultimate loss will be about 12%. And from that point progress will probably be at a comparable pace to if UK had remained in EU.

8% lost economic potential is already huge, hopefully it won’t come to 12%, but I’m afraid it will, because UK remains a less attractive country to invest in than if UK was in EU, and that will inevitably slow economic growth.

TL;DR: “Brexit has therefore not produced an economic crisis in the conventional sense. The UK economy has continued to grow, unemployment remains relatively low, and many firms have adapted. But adaptation is not the same as absence of cost. The more relevant counterfactual is not whether the economy is still functioning, but how much better it might have performed; on that question, the evidence is increasingly settled.”

It’s kind of a strange article… UIACE are widely regarded as being impartial and that does seem to be reflected in the text, but this conclusion is still kind of vague. Seems to boil down to “It hasn’t been too bad but still might be”. Feels like kind of a pointless take. Brexiteers will probably latch onto the first half " Brexit has therefore not produced an economic crisis in the conventional sense. The UK economy has continued to grow, unemployment remains relatively low, and many firms have adapted " while remainers will point to the second half " adaptation is not the same as absence of cost. The more relevant counterfactual is not whether the economy is still functioning, but how much better it might have performed; on that question, the evidence is increasingly settled ". What it doesn’t offer is any insight as to what the middle ground might be in terms of reconciliation and what a more nuanced future might look like.

This comes out to one of those “No shit Sherlock” moments.

The Remain side said about this the whole time, that Brexit would come with both immediate effects and long-term economic damage - called “Project Fear” by those who sought to benefit from Brexit.

And that’s exactly what has happened. I’m not surprised, and anybody who is was had. Simple as.

Happy Pie day!