The Globe gets deeper into the numbers:
The government said that by 2040, the carbon price paid by the market will be $130 per tonne. However, the floor price, which is the fee enforced by the government, will be set at only $110 per tonne for 2040. … Alberta will start regulating a floor price in 2030, at $60 per tonne … when Mr. Trudeau was prime minister, it was much stricter, at $170 per tonne by 2030.
So a two thirds discount on the 2030 number. I’m betting that’ll be further watered down in the next few years.
They’re even scaling back the carbon capture plan:
The original aim of Pathways was to reduce emissions by 22 megatonnes per year. Friday’s agreement scales that down to 16 megatonnes per year. And it sets the in-service date at 2035, rather than the previously stated 2030.
In context: annual heating due to climate change is accelerating, as is sea level rise
There’s a lot of good context in here, even as I’m still deeply conflicted about this strategy.
“The final Canada-Alberta MOU implementation agreement will put Canada’s target of net zero by 2050 well out of reach,” Rick Smith, president of the Canadian Climate Institute, said in a written statement.
The Pembina Institute said its modelling showed the carbon pricing schedule included in the implementation agreement would result in an additional 230 megatonnes of greenhouse gas emissions over the next 15 years.
The federal government had no modelling of its own to offer on Friday.
The policy left behind by Justin Trudeau’s government was stronger on paper. But Carney might argue his policy is stronger in practice — not least because it was achieved via political consensus with a conservative Alberta premier.
…
In defiance of the federal benchmark, Smith’s government had frozen the province’s industrial price at $95 per tonne last year. (Meanwhile, Saskatchewan has stopped collecting an industrial carbon price altogether.) And because of inefficiencies in Alberta’s pricing system, the effective price was much lower.
Why are you conflicted? Im seeing huge reductions to industrial carbon price because the feds refused to reign in provinces that violate federal law and then reward them for violating those laws. Now we have even weaker climate policy.
The lesson is obvious to provinces: dont follow federal laws you dont agree with. I guess thats why heslthcare privatization has been allowed to progress so far across the country.
I think it’s perfectly understandable to at least attempt to rein in an increasingly rogue province by making a mutually acceptable deal. I don’t believe it will help, or at least not much, but I can understand the attempt.
The lesson is obvious to provinces: dont follow federal laws you dont agree with.
That said, I can’t really disagree with this point.
Ultimately, the proposed pipeline still seems to be contingent on finding a private entity that thinks it’s a good investment, and I’m not at all convinced that that will ever happen. We’ll see.
Not sure why any oil company would even want to make a big investment in Alberta while the UCP is in power. The Smith Government is willing to flaunt federal laws, First Nations treaties, the Constitution and their own laws as they feel like. I’d think competent CEOs would see that as a ripe environment for getting bound up in lawsuits and court cases, not for capital investment.
It looks like they’re dramatically reducing the carbon price, delaying increases to the cost, and reducing the goals for carbon capture.
It looks like a win for the greenhouse gas producers, and yet another fuck you to our kids.
The counterpoint (and it’s a deeply shitty, cynical counterpoint) is that the original targets weren’t realistic to begin with, and would have been missed, just like every other climate target ever.
Is this better? History suggests it probably isn’t. Is it worse? Maybe, but the depressing truth is it might just be a lateral move.
And that’s the strongest “defense” I’m able to muster, which is pretty depressing.
You’re right that it’s a deeply shitty and cynical counterpoint. In terms of realpolitik, you probably aren’t wrong.
Trudeau talked a great game but repeatedly fumbled the implementation. Maybe if his government has done a better job with the branding and politicisation of the various carbon taxes we’d be in a better spot. But we aren’t.
At best we can say this steals some of the thunder from the separatists.
