Analysts fear Iran has played a weak hand well and the US has blundered into a defining strategic failure
Four weeks into a war that was going to take four days, and that has so far cost the US about $30-40bn and Israel $300m a day, Washington is further away from a diplomatic agreement with Iran than it was in May 2025.
Not only has the war failed to persuade Iran to agree to dismantle its nuclear programme in the comprehensive and irreversible way the US demanded in a 15-point paper that it tabled on 23 May last year, Washington is now having to negotiate to reopen the strait of Hormuz, a strategic waterway that has been open ever since the invention of the dhow, with a short exception of a tanker war in the 1980s between Iran and Iraq.
This regression is proving to be perplexing for the American high command. Pete Hegseth, the secretary of defence, recently said that “the only thing prohibiting transit in the strait right now is Iran shooting at shipping”, but this was not quite right. Iran has not been shooting at shipping that much in recent weeks. Instead, it is the fear of Iran shooting at shipping that is scaring off insurers and tanker owners.
We’ve seen it again and again. Trump’s modus operandi in “making a deal” is to find what he thinks is an easy target, makes unacceptabke demands, attacks and bullies it from the start and then acts all surprised when the target becomes heavily polarized against him and the US, refuses to make any kind of concessions and would rather continue taking damage fighting back in every way they can.
Usually at some point after that he TACOs and tries to spin it as a “victory”, leaving the US weakened on the international stage. Waiting for that to happen soon with Iran.
Russia has done very well, though! Higher prices for oil that people were shying away from, and a possible diversion of arms away from Ukraine.
Art of the Deal
GOP, using all five gears at its disposal, in reverse!
