(credit to RomCom1989 for the title)
Image is of an Iranian soldier exulting in the launch of a ballistic missile aimed towards the imperialists.
short summary this week: US doing pretty bad and Iran doing pretty good all things considered, Strait of Hormuz is closed and will almost certainly remain so until the end of the war, Trump has no idea what to do, global economic crisis from strait closure is basically guaranteed at this point but who will ultimately benefit most and who will ultimately lose most is still up in the air.
longish summary is below in the spoiler tags
longish summary
While there are still major debates raging about how badly things are actually going right now and what the post-conflict map may look like, as we blaze past the two week mark on this conflict, it’s becoming ever more obvious to almost everybody involved that this war is not going according to plan, if there ever was one. US airstrikes are, from what I can best determine, still mostly done with relatively less powerful (but still very dangerous!) and much less plentiful standoff munitions launched from bombers, though certain border and coastal areas are being struck with more powerful and more plentiful short-range guided bombs. This indicates that Iranian air defense is still sufficiently functional throughout most of Iran that the kinds of true carpet bombing done against Korea and Vietnam in the past (and Gaza very recently) is still too risky, though their airspace is still very much under assault, as we appear to have images of small groups of Western fighters breaching relatively deep into the country. Under some kind of Iranian pressure (drones? missiles? speedboats?) one aircraft carrier has retreated to a thousand kilometers from Iran, hiding behind the mountains of Oman; the other is sitting in the Red Sea, rather pointedly out of range of Yemen. As such, the ranges that Western aircraft must travel to bombard Iran is increasing, which reduces their frequency and increases strain on maintenance and logistics in the medium and long term.
While there is tons to say about the current social, economic, and military state of Iran, I don’t think I have a reliable enough picture to give a good summary beyond “they aren’t close to defeat or regime change”. What has instead captured much of the world’s attention is the continuing blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which has inspired some of the most delusional statements I have seen so far in my life, which is sincerely a profound achievement. For those out of the loop: the strait is currently closed to all shipping except those going to very particular countries (I’ve seen China and Bangladesh mentioned, and apparently India is in the process of working something out and may succeed or fail). This is because most ships are not risking the trip due to the ~20 tankers and container ships that Iran has already struck and disabled in the strait and in the Persian Gulf. Additionally, the threat from Iran’s military to Navy ships is such that attempting to create a convoy to guide tankers through it is suicidal to both the Navy and merchant ships. Right now it cannot be done, and it very well might be the case that it could never be done, simply due to the combination of Iran’s naval forces (hundreds, perhaps thousands, of armed, specialized speedboats designed for exactly this purpose), their drones (in the tens of thousands), their torpedoes, and if all else fails, their naval mines.
The Western reaction to this has been so moronic that it has almost integer underflowed into being philosophical: what does it truly mean for a passage to be “closed”? Has Iran truly “closed” the strait, or is the risk of traversing it simply too high for these cowardly sailors (who, for some strange reason, seem to care about their “lives” and “families”)? How is it possible for Iran to have closed the strait if, according to the West, Iran’s military has been totally obliterated? All these questions and more plague the minds of those who cannot accept the now-proven fact that there are indeed military forces on this planet that the US Navy with all its aircraft carriers and destroyers and submarines cannot defeat; and one of those minds is, rather hilariously, Trump himself. His thrice-daily positive affirmations that Iran has been defeated are taking on an increasingly deranged and almost pitiable tone; the lamentations of a man who has finally found a situation where him merely stating that something is true is insufficient to change the situation one iota. Despite stating that some kind of naval compact or alliance is being established to protect shipping, every Western country so far - from the UK, to France, to Japan, to Australia - has publicly stated that they will not risk their ships to do so. All this as the continued blockade yet further guarantees a worldwide energy, production, transportation, and food crisis that will have major global ramifications for at least the rest of the decade and almost certainly beyond.
If the anti-imperialists play their cards right, the US could lose much from this crisis, and others, like China and Russia, could gain a great deal. To quote Nia Frome (co-founder of Red Sails): “An effective Marxist has to be enough of an accelerationist/pervert to treat the obviously bad things that are going to happen as the political opportunities they are.”
Last week’s thread is here.
The Imperialism Reading Group is here.
Please check out the RedAtlas!
The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.
The Zionist Entity's Genocide of Palestine
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on the Zionists’ destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
Mirrors of Telegram channels that have been erased by Zionist censorship.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia’s youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don’t want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it’s just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists’ side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR’s former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR’s forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster’s telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a ‘propaganda tax’, if you don’t believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
If this is not the relevant place for a question, sorry.
What is stopping Iran from exporting it’s missile tech to, say, Cuba?
Stunning stuff out of Foreign Affairs today:
Although it was the United States and Israel that instigated attacks on Iran on February 28, leaders in Tehran deserve some of the blame for failing to effectively deter their adversaries.
Not much point reading past this, to be honest. Enough to think about just in the first sentence.
https://xcancel.com/ripplebrain/status/2034658636643832062
Qatar Gas CEO: We incurred a $20 billion loss at the facility we built for $26 billion two years ago.
American oil companies like Exxon and ConocoPhillips funded this project and are massively exposed to it
This is something people don’t understand when they think “oil go up, American companies make money!” The oil majors want a stable situation in which they can achieve a long-term, predictable return on their investments. They want to be able to sell their product to whoever, wherever, with minimal regulation. An environment where prices are spiking wildly, trade corridors are being shut down, and multi-billion dollar facilities are going up in smoke in an instant is not good for business. Periods of high volatility result in these companies mitigating risk by scaling back investments. And they would love to make a deal with the Iranians, because there’s money to be made there. Dick Cheney, of all people, spent the 90s lobbying for the removal of all sanctions on Iran for this reason. When Trump withdrew from the JCPOA in 2018 he blew up the first major western deal for investment in Iranian oil operations in a decade. Profit motive does not explain what we’re seeing with this war.
https://xcancel.com/ripplebrain/status/2034630887623504199
Absolutely morbid black comedy that the U.S. government is removing sanctions on Russian and Iranian oil in 2026 not as part of any celebrated peace deal or diplomatic normalization but as a last-ditch effort to soften the blow of a historic energy crisis caused by a U.S. war.
If you want to get sanctions removed DO NOT COMPLY with America’s demands. Instead, start a world order shattering war that threatens critical resource flows. You may have to be patient but those sanctions are coming off eventually.
https://xcancel.com/ripplebrain/status/2034630334000644311
Rheinmetall CEO confirms my reporting. All stockpiles in Europe, the Mideast, and US are basically empty. Cannibalization of INDOPACOM Arsenal, which began a little bit last week, will begin in earnest. It will take years, if ever, to recover. Moscow and Beijing know this.
Here’s the statement in context. He seems to be talking about air defense munitions specifically. Reminder that Rheinmetall has a six year order backlog and their share price has increased 1,700% since the start of the war in Ukraine.
Iran claims to have hit the F35, the Haifa refinery (around ~50% of all Israeli refining capacity) is said to be slightly on fire. Not huge wins, but also not a terrible day for Iran!
[edit] Ynet claims that it was a fragmentation warhead hit. Looks like the fire is still on fire.
QatarGas’s Pearl GTL (Gas to liquid) complex is on fire, so it is quite likely that its ASU (Air separator unit) has been destroyed. These units are extremely expensive and are manufactured in Italy by Linde and SIAD Macchine Impianti. They cost about a billion dollars at current inflation rates per unit (when the site was built $400 million) and the manufacturing time takes 3-4 years. Pearl contained 8 units.
from https://xcancel.com/cirnosad/status/2034373083717599405
The UK, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Japan has sent in a silly letter in which they whine about the closure of the Hormuz strait and condemn Iranian retaliation but not the US-Zionist terrorist attacks on civilian infrastructure that caused it.
They also declare their “readiness to contribute to appropriate efforts” to break the Iranian closure of the strait. What will they be contributing? What efforts will be appropriate? God only knows but at least they are keeping their options open while making an effort to appear firm and forceful.
Even though they are dogs of empire I still doubt that they are falling over themselves to send their sailors and expensive ships directly into an Iranian kill zone.
UK defense official: Boeing has been ‘troubled partner’ in much delayed E-7 program
Despite the UK once committing to field Wedgetail in the “early” 2020s, it was revealed last year that a new timeframe of 2026 had been approved.
NATO adopting the ambitious “no radars whatsoever, whether on the ground or in the air” strategy
more
Amid ongoing British E-7 Wedgetail Airborne Early Warning and Control (AEW&C) acquisition troubles, an official charged with leading UK defense reform and investment planning took aim at US giant Boeing today, citing the manufacturer’s internal “difficulties.” Rupert Pearce, national armaments director at the UK Ministry of Defence, said the MoD had expected to get an E-7 that had largely been “proven out” in Australia, which has been flying the plane for more than a decade, but it took so long for Boeing to deliver that there was a “much higher level of obsolescense.” The certification of new components, he said, caused additional “very significant delays.” “What we’ve discovered with Wedgetail is [problems with] producer timing,” said Pearce, as he addressed lawmakers from the UK Defence Committee. “[W]e’ve also found that Boeing has been a troubled partner. … They’re trying very hard, but as we know … they’ve had their own difficulties inside their own aircraft programs, and that has led to a much higher level of scrutiny of the certification process inside” the company. Despite the UK once committing to field Wedgetail in the “early” 2020s, it was revealed last year that a new timeframe of 2026 had been approved. Breaking Defense has reached out to Boeing for comment.
London originally signed a $1.98 billion contract with Boeing for the procurement of five E-7 aircraft to replace its E-3D Sentry fleet, but subsequently decided on a reduced buy of three units on cost grounds. The UK MoD has also agreed to pay for all five of the Northrop Grumman Multi-Role Electronically Scanned Array (MESA) radars, arguing that the two additional sensors can be used as spares. In February, Ben Wallace, former UK defense secretary, said on X that the Royal Air Force and Boeing went “behind” ministers backs to procure the five radars. “It was one of the worst examples of dishonesty I saw from an armed service,” he added. The RAF and Boeing did not comment on the matter at the time. The UK was left with an airborne early warning capability gap when the E-3D aircraft were retired in 2021. But with E-7 progress slower than anticipated, the program has drawn the ire of lawmakers and received damaging appraisals from equipment assessments. “Challenges within the [Wedgetail] global supply chain, retention of an appropriately skilled workforce at the modification facility and an increase in certification complexity and requirements has caused delays to the In-Service Date and subsequent milestones,” noted a local Infrastructure and Service Transformation Authority annual report, last year. Putting forward the factors involved in a 5 percent budget variance, it also noted, “Defence financial challenges and internal spend commitment controls have led to a different spend profile to that initially envisaged.”
Douglas Barrie, senior fellow for military aerospace at the UK-based International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) think tank, previously told Breaking Defense that it has long been recognized three planes “is not enough.” When the range of E-7 missions are considered, including air support for ballistic missile submarines he said, “five aircraft was the absolute minimum that could actually cover … what you needed to do, ideally, seven would have been good.” The UK is keeping faith in the program despite NATO allies assessing “alternatives” in the immediate aftermath of ending an order of six aircraft — citing the loss of “strategic and financial foundations.” The US Air Force attempted last year to cancel the program, but was overruled by lawmakers who ordered continued development of the plane in the fiscal 2026 defense budget. Elsewhere in the defence committee hearing, Pearce apologized for previously telling lawmakers that the UK’s long-delayed defense investment plan would be published in a matter of days. The document, set to lay out national weapon system procurement priorities for the next decade, was initially due to be released in the fall of 2025. The MoD has since resorted to not disclosing a timeline. “I admit I got it wrong,” said Pearce, of his erroneous forecast made in December. “It’s an extremely complex reset, 10-year reset. There’s so many moving pieces here. It has just taken a lot, lot longer than I thought it would to get this right and to agree it across government.”
