This paragraph pretty much sums up where I’m at:
Musk’s plan for the merged companies is predicated on several assumptions, including that AI is not a bubble, but rather a technology that will be fully embraced in the future; that orbital data centers are cost-competitive compared to ground-based data centers; and that compute is the essential roadblock that must be solved for widespread adoption of AI by society.
I guess I just disagree with the CEO on all of those.
AI is not a bubble
orbital data centers are cost-competitive compared to ground-based data
Press 𝕏 to doubt. Or maybe stay off of 𝕏 entirely :)
Even if I hate Elon and all he stands for, I have to disagree on second part.
Scott Manley did a good video on the subject, and he is rarely wrong on the engineering side of this kind of subjects :
that orbital data centers are cost-competitive compared to ground-based data centers
Might as well work off of the assumptions that magical math-faeries will do all the computing in orbit, in exchange for candy canes. It’s about as realistic.
Solar irradiance is only about 25-30% more efficient in orbit, so with 40% efficiency (VERY optimistic, ISS does about 14%) a 1GW orbital datacenter would require a mere 0.4 x 10^8 / 1300 m2 worth of solar panels, or a square 550m to a side.
If we use ISS-style solar arrays, which generate ~7.5w/kg, and double the efficiency, it would weigh 66000 tons, which translates to 3800 Falcon 9 launches. Just to power it. That includes zero frames, zero GPU’s, and most importantly, zero cooling.
Personally the calculation seems dubious too (running a data center is fucking pricy, power is just a part of that …), but one neat feature of space solar is that arrays can be bigger than on earth too. Just more… Space… Also less gravity allows for structure designs.
Again not disagreeing just nerding on space solar.
This is very sad… the Nazi CEO doesn’t actually care about space exploration. The Mars missions will probably not happen, and at this rate, he might even manage to kill his cash cow SpaceX.
Imagine that, thousands and thousands of employees gave it their best only for the dream to go up in smoke like that. Instead, they’ll work for dumb space groklinks, so that Musk can fill his deep pockets while spreading fascism on Twitter and funding his bigoted LLM.
What a sad reality we live in.
he might even manage to kill his cash cow SpaceX
thousands and thousands of employees gave it their best only for the dream to go up in smoke
I would hope that if SpaceX collapses, the employees would find their way to other organizations with a similar dream.
SpaceX would still have served a purpose. Without it, there probably wouldn’t be a Neutron, Nova, or Zhuque-3, or an Inspiration4, Fram2, or Axiom.
I mean, sure, you’re not wrong. It’s just that you see the glass half full while I see it half empty haha. You see the gain, I see the loss.
It just didn’t have to end this way. And it still kills the dream of seeing humans on Mars within the next ten years. Now, I’m thinking I won’t see such a thing in my lifetime. No one is going to try to do it in the foreseeable future, except maybe the Chinese in a few decades if they really set it as their next goal.
Honestly former SpaceX employee startups are really cool even if the old company has a egomaniac ball and chain holding that place back
Wait, SpaceX owns Twitter now.
What the actual fuck is this timeline.
All of Twitter, or just the AI portion?
Edit: Huh, it looks like xAI is the shell company that owns 𝕏, formerly Twitter. So I guess SpaceX do own Twitter now. That is weird.
“Fascists moron uses only succesful company to prop up failing ones”.
Everything must make way for the CSAM-factory to keep running and stroking his ego.
That’s one way to run an otherwise promising business into the ground.
