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Before 2014, 80% of Russia’s trade was with the West, and just 10% with China. The bulk of investment and technology in Russia came from the EU and the U.S. When Putin decided to annex Crimea, he started to rely on China more to replace the dependency on the West. The full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 greatly exacerbated that process. Today Beijing accounts for more than 30% of Russia’s export revenues and provides over 40% of its imports, including goods that fuel the Kremlin’s war machine. For China, Russia’s footprint is smaller and thus replaceable: just 3% of exports and 5% of imports last year.

As Russia’s estrangement from the West deepens, China’s role as a lifeline to Putin’s system is only set to grow. And there is no escape now. When Putin turned his back on the West a decade ago, he had China to fill the void. But now, even if for some reason he chose to pivot away from Beijing, there is no credible alternative.

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The Kremlin’s growing dependency on Beijing is here to stay — at least, as long as Putin’s obsession with Ukraine and his grudges against the West are a placeholder for a pragmatic grand strategy for Russia.