cross-posted from: https://lemmy.sdf.org/post/35842538
China’s long-term outlook for natural gas demand remains bullish despite some short-term uncertainties caused by the country’s economic growth and geopolitical tensions with the US, delegates said at a recent industry conference held in China last week.
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Longer term, senior Chinese executives still see strong growth for gas demand, but the extent of the increase hinges on how fast gas-fired power capacity catches up with renewables and the affordability of LNG.
"Price and stability of supplies are the most important factors. … If LNG prices are not so high and volatility is not so high, LNG demand will increase, especially in the relatively rich areas in the east and south part of China,” Wang Zhen, the president of state major China National Offshore Oil Corp.'s (CNOOC) research arm, the CNOOC Energy Economic Institute, said at the event.
“LNG has a big potential, but it must work hard,” he noted, adding that China’s solar and wind capacity is growing fast.
China’s gas consumption in 2024 rose by 8% year on year to 426 billion cubic meters, according to China’s National Development and Reform Commission. Demand during the January to March 2025 period fell 2.2% on year to 105.75 Bcm.
Strong Long-Term Gas Demand
Chinese gas demand will reach 620 Bcm in 2035-40, state major Sinopec Chairman Ma Yongsheng said at the conference.
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China’s largest gas supplier, China National Petroleum Corp. (CNPC), boosted its peak demand forecast earlier this year to 620 Bcm-650 Bcm by 2035, compared to the company’s peak demand forecast of 600 Bcm it gave last year.
CNPC said the country’s peak gas demand could rise to 700 Bcm if there is a significant boost to domestic gas production due to technological advances, such as through shale gas developments and coal gasification.
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LNG remains the most expensive gas source in China when compared to domestic gas production and pipeline imports, industry sources say.
LNG will increasingly compete with pipeline imports as LNG moves further inland to meet demand in central and western parts of Asia, said Zhu Xingshan, a professor with the Institute of Energy at Peking University.
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