It seems like there’s no way that Biden can make any negotiation with Russia seem like a win to his base so if he wins it’s almost an automatic 4 more years of war. But if Trump wins he could make most of the concessions that Russia wants and still sell it as “the best deal” to his fans. Is a trump win the best hope for shortening war?

Disclaimer: I would never vote for trump, I also won’t vote for Biden, I’m also in a state that always goes one way so it doesn’t matter at all.

  • xapr [he/him]
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    1 year ago

    First, let me start by saying that, similar to you, I would never vote for Trump, didn’t and won’t vote for Biden, and am also in a state that always goes one way.

    Having said all that, some things about Trump’s prior actions and statements make me believe that, if the war hasn’t ended by the time of the election, he would be much more likely to end the war much sooner than Biden.

    Why do I say this? First, like @HarryLime said, Biden is completely bound to this war, so he’s likely to drag it out as long as possible and try to maintain the illusion that Russia is losing. I suppose that there’s some chance that he cuts his losses after the election.

    Second, I think Trump has demonstrated multiple times that he’s not into war. As far as I know, he did not start any new wars or invasions while he was in office, and in fact ended a couple of them. He withdrew from Syria and initiated the process of withdrawing from Afghanistan. On Syria, he said that there was nothing there for the US aside from “sand and death”.

    On Ukraine, he has specifically stated that he would end the war within 24 hours. Regardless of how ridiculous that sounds, he elaborated on what he would say to both Zelensky and Putin, and you can just tell that he doesn’t like this war either.

    Most of his statements about most wars that we’ve been involved in seem to indicate that he instinctively dislikes war and all its negative impacts. Whether he would actually be able to end it or not is another question, considering what @footfaults mentioned about the generals sabotaging his efforts to leave Afghanistan.

    Finally, here’s an analysis from the BBC on how a Trump presidency might change the Ukraine war.

    Edit: another factor is that remember that Biden pretty much loaded his entire national security and foreign policy apparatus with neocons. In contrast, Trump had maybe a couple, with a prominent example being John Bolton, who was like a cartoon neocon. He seemed to be used more for barking than for biting. Here’s what seems like a good article about this. I only skimmed it, but this caught my eye:

    Far from the textbook ideal of National Security Advisor as an honest broker, Bolton acted as a policy advocate. His strong convictions and history as an arch-neoconservative who believes in America’s role to police the world and engage in military action to effect regime change in states perceived as a threat has been well-documented. A proponent of the “axis of evil” view of the world, he advocated for the invasion of Iraq in 2003, as well forceful regime change in Iran and North Korea.

    However, such war-happiness has run antithetical to Trump’s apparent view of the scope and purpose of US foreign policy. Trump’s proclivity to transactionalism and dismissal of the notion that the US is a force for good involved in a Manichean struggle against evil. Trump has been unequivocal in the view that acting as a global policeman has been detrimental for the state coffers and has given allies and partners a free ride. While Trump has done nothing to reduce US military spending – he has actually increased it – his threshold for the use of force has been much higher than Bolton’s (albeit less consistent, as seen in the case of Syria in 2017 and 2018, in response to Bashar al-Assad’s use of chemical weapons against civilians). It should be little wonder, then, that Trump remained resistant to Bolton’s sabre-rattling.

    • IzyaKatzmann [he/him]
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      71 year ago

      Interesting points you bring up. Trump working towards a prosocial environment is an interesting thesis and yeah, from the evidence you provided and from anecdotal accounts that does seem to be the case.

      If I were to think why, I want to say that he takes war to be distasteful on its face. Whereas war hawks and pundits have goals of utter domination, I wonder if Trump sees that as antithetical to business.

      Certainly some productivity and money is to be made and perhaps increases in a conflict, the US seems to have a novel method owing to its place in geopolitics. The net, murder of how many, displacement of more, tendency for sexual violence against women, these can’t be thought to increase production in aggregate.

      Another idea is maybe conflict is too oriented towards the government. Then, their interests are represented rather than business interests. The market becomes lopsided and entrepreneurial activities are tied at the hip at some level with producing for conflict. I think of Microsoft and HoloLens, as well as their software for ICE.

      From the prior points, maybe the best explanation is differing groups interests within the same class conflicting and conspiring with one another. Such a simple explanation does not feel satisfactory.

      If anyone else could help me understand I would really appreciate it, I think it shows, but I’m not really well read on theory (not ML at least).

      • xapr [he/him]
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        51 year ago

        As for Trump, my view is that he relies heavily on instinct in most areas of his life, and his anti-war position seems to be based on a few instinctive positions he holds: he seems to dislike death and blood (ex: his Syria comments), he seems to dislike the destruction of buildings (perhaps because of his real estate background?), and he probably sees no personal profit (even though he has a business background, I don’t believe he’s involved in the military industrial complex) or national economic gain to be made from most wars the US has been involved in (he seems much more oriented toward national economic interest rather than geopolitical power games - see again his Syria comments).

        As for inter-class conflict, I don’t think that is too simple of an explanation. US foreign policy since World War II has been an ongoing battle of ideas, with push and pull between interventionists and non-interventionists. Neoconservatism is an ideology that sees the role of the US as the principal promoter of “freedom” and “democracy” around the world, making domestic economic conditions secondary to that goal. That ideology is opposed by many people across the political spectrum, so the influence of neocons on US foreign policy grows and shrinks with different administrations. If you read the wikipedia article on neoconservatism it says that many neoconservatives opposed Trump in 2016 “due to his criticism of interventionist foreign policies”.

          • xapr [he/him]
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            21 year ago

            You’re welcome! I should caveat that I’m not well-read on theory either. :)

            • IzyaKatzmann [he/him]
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              41 year ago

              I’m sorry, I’ve already quoted you several time now. We’re in this together. You best keep up an act for both our sakes.

              • xapr [he/him]
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                21 year ago

                Haha, sounds good, but I hope not. I wouldn’t quote myself. :)