This post is a set of my observations on the current war in Iran and my thoughts on the broader strategic implications. I am not, of course, an expert on the region nor do I have access to any spec…
That said, there are many odious regimes in the world and we do not go to war with all of them.
I feel like so much of the debate misses this forest for the trees. Sure, X regime is awful. How does valued ally Saudi compare? It’s at best an often-decisive factor in whether to be nice to someone or not.
Edit: Another good one:
There is a frequent mistake, often from folks who deal in economics, to assume that countries will give up on wars when the economics turn bad.
Even if you only care about economics, continuing the war just has to be personally cheaper for an official than ending the war. And then there’s tons of coercion, ego and ideology in the mix as well, and sometimes raw irrationality.
Early on in this, there were oil traders talking about how nothing will even disrupt oil because it’s too important. That’s replacing history with a fanfic you wrote, basically. Same vibe as the 90’s when the world decided free markets always become a democracy.
Regarding that economic point of view thinking… I remember reading a World War 1 history book where they mentioned that before the war, every economist was saying that there wont be a war because the world’s economies are so deeply linked, the UK and Germany were doing too much trade…
Economists have been absolute fucking morons about history and how the world works for literal centuries. We really should pull them down from the pedestal they have climbed on, sit them down and tell them to shut the fuck up for a few decades.
I feel like so much of the debate misses this forest for the trees. Sure, X regime is awful. How does valued ally Saudi compare? It’s at best an often-decisive factor in whether to be nice to someone or not.
Edit: Another good one:
Even if you only care about economics, continuing the war just has to be personally cheaper for an official than ending the war. And then there’s tons of coercion, ego and ideology in the mix as well, and sometimes raw irrationality.
Early on in this, there were oil traders talking about how nothing will even disrupt oil because it’s too important. That’s replacing history with a fanfic you wrote, basically. Same vibe as the 90’s when the world decided free markets always become a democracy.
Regarding that economic point of view thinking… I remember reading a World War 1 history book where they mentioned that before the war, every economist was saying that there wont be a war because the world’s economies are so deeply linked, the UK and Germany were doing too much trade…
Economists have been absolute fucking morons about history and how the world works for literal centuries. We really should pull them down from the pedestal they have climbed on, sit them down and tell them to shut the fuck up for a few decades.