CES 2026 is over and it has revealed the situation with memory being consumed by AI companies is much worse than we initially thought.

What I heard on the ground floor from various system integrators, components manufacturers, and other companies, is memory supply has been tied up for all of 2026, and that shortages could last as long as until 2031.

Sure it’s scuttlebutt but wouldn’t surprise me as being true.

  • HakFooEnglish
    12·
    8 hours ago

    Part of it is not finished DRAM that was sold yet, it’s wafer capacity at the factory.

    Sam Altman has promised orders for a kazillion wafers that don’t exist yet. It’s been argued this is less legitimate demand and more an effort to crimp the scaling ambitions of other competitors.

    If his cheque bounces early on, the manufacturers are likely to reassign his slots to other buyers.

    The manufacturers are taking a fair bit of risk though. If they aren’t getting paid before work starts, and the bubble pops in the middle, thry could end up with a lot of (partially or fully) finished wafers that they can’t just slice up and sell to Corsair and G.Skill.

    • ZeDoTelhado@lemmy.worldEnglish
      6·
      7 hours ago

      You are not wrong about the reallocation part. However, if you see the actions from micron (fuck you micron BTW), they are going all in and having a shit storm in PR on the consumer side. If they are taking these risks without proper assurances, then they are utterly deranged