The author contradicts himself:

When a citizen sees the currency lose half its value while news of systemic corruption breaks, the opportunity cost of rebellion drops to near zero.

This is not only about relief from sanctions but also about endemic corruption among political elites, power monopolized by the Supreme Leader and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and their affiliated businesses. Just a few weeks ago a leaked wedding video laid bare the luxurious lives of Iran’s political elite and highlighted hypocrisy of the Islamic Republic:

A video purportedly showing the wedding of the daughter of Ali Shamkhani, a top advisor to Iran’s Supreme Leader, has sparked widespread reactions on social media. Users are criticizing the Islamic Republic officials’ hypocrisy and double standards …