What odds are they giving for “shitty rocket accidentally blows up on launch”?

There is no biological difference between innate and acquired immunity, right? Right?

Slavery was perfectly legal according to the votes at that time.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-05668-6

This paper zooms in on the Amazon forest (used to be the hugest CO2 sequestration area). Every drought year signals the start of a multiple year long stretch where there is a loss of Carbon uptake in the forest. The trees are damaged, weakened and dying from each round of drought.

These droughts are happening on a 5-6 year cycle, and the damage to Carbon absorption lasts from 3-5 years each time.

If I’m doing the math correctly, the annual contribution to global CO2 from the forest was around 1/8 of a year’s human fossil fuel contributions…

They specifically think they ruled out factors like technology, covid and support for the teachers, because different countries isolated for those variables.

I think that would be a great plan

It’s clear that US leadership, no matter what it says publicly, is getting ready for a Climate Apocalypse and a “New World Order”. The SPEED at which they are moving indicates they expect things to start getting BAD very soon now.

I think a lot of the narratives that have spun up about what is going on (with the changes in the world order) smack of a kind of “taken-for-granted” reality / logic. There is an overall reaction that the way things were normal in the past is the way they are always supposed to be, and any and all change is now wrong just because it defies to maintain previous expectations.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_constructionism

“The real environment is altogether too big, too complex, and too fleeting for direct acquaintance” between people and their environment. Each person constructs a pseudo-environment that is a subjective, biased, and necessarily abridged mental image of the world, and to a degree, everyone’s pseudo-environment is a fiction.

To me, collapse is THE most cogent explainer for what is going on now. There is an overall pattern of changes where the system seems to be seeking lower complexity and lower costs (money/energy). The facade that we will fix climate change or other global issues in the future…that is going away now.

At the same time, most people seem totally blindsided as they try to grapple with that glimpse into deeper reality…and they are seeing what is going on with a worldview where literal collapse seems to be something they can’t (or won’t) see. Its like a grieving process where people are in stages of denial and bargaining.

So, as an example, instead of being scared about climate, people are fretting about the stock market taking away some of their money. You can see how deeply they are clinging on to this bubble that is popping. That future never was. But what people badly want is to go back to sleep.

This blog post comes at the role of aerosols and raises the issue of whether sulphur ship emissions works out to be a good Faustian bargain.

https://benbyfax.substack.com/p/how-to-boil-the-mediterranean-sea

In hindsight, sulphur ship emissions were running a climate geoengineering program that had a huge effect we didn’t fully realize.

The cooling effect from sulfur is much greater than the warming effect from CO2.

It is good for the climate that we have a emitted a lot of sulfur into the atmosphere, because it is masking a lot of warming. Without sulfur, we’d already be near 2°C.

Even though it’s already accelerating, it’s going to go even faster: The author points out that starting in May, much more emissions will start to be cut over the Mediterranean, which is 1/3 of all ship traffic on the planet.

They don’t have the cards?!?

And that speaker is more or less stationary, and it’s inside a room?

I think your absolute best audio (for speech) would be from a lavalier mic clipped on the person. Second best might be a shotgun / directional mic focused on the speaker. Zoom recorder placed in the room will be more likely pick up any other audio like HVAC hum, passing traffic, footsteps BUT it will also pick up the room acoustics and stereo image.

One suggestion is to actually capture audio on multiple devices and mix them (if needed) in Post-production. For post production you can play with EQ and compression, plus volume normalization to get a good clarity.

It’s always nice to attach the mics to their own independent supports so that you don’t get any unwanted microphonics from touch / vibrations. For example, if you place the lav clip on the person but they brush their clothes, or if you stand the mic on the table but they tap the table as they speak…

I remember that when the 2008 Global Financial Crisis happened, there was this undercurrent (from the heterodox analysts) that what precipitated the inability to kick the can on debt repayments was an uptick on the cost of energy / oil.

So here was the simplified model of the idea: before 2008 Joe Plumber drove out of town and kept going until he could afford the home prices. He works remotely and he commutes 45 miles back into town to work where the clients live.

Joe could afford to live X miles from his customer as long as the transport costs are stable. Now, as the price of oil creeps up, it outpaces the amount he can charge customers squeezing his profits. When he can’t afford to fill his gas tank from the profit on his jobs, there are more and more further out jobs he just doesn’t accept to do. This basically crushes a LOT of marginal businesses at the same time it demolishes the stability of the home values farther from urban areas.

So basically, Joe plumber can’t pay his mortgage and living in the boonies sucks, and because the commute is so expensive for anyone else also, nobody else wants this house and he can’t sell it easily and not lose money. In the background a bunch of wall-street types have leveraged the whole financial / lending system…and hence the 2008 crisis.

the 2008 financial crisis wasn’t really a bubble after all. In fact, they suggest, house prices were rising rationally because too few houses were being built in places people most wanted to move to, not because of irrational speculation

The whole airbnb / zoom-boom / zoom-town thing is like an even larger out-migration than the lead-up to 2008 GFC. People weren’t driving further in the close enivrons around high cost of living cities, they were moving even more distances to low cost of living areas (sun belt + continental interior) that had been losing residents and had cheap land and houses. They don’t really live a daily commuting distance from their jobs.

https://www.cbre.com/insights/briefs/motm-the-zoom-housing-boom-is-coming-to-an-end-in-the-us

So…this shuffle was fueled by affluent young people who can work remotely and it was accelerated by covid. There is some evidence that people / economies who are tied to goods production + distribution / manufacturing / physical tangible goods could not flow towards cheaper areas. Most of the moves went out to 100-500 miles away from the original town not clear across the entire country.

Anyhow, I don’t know what I’m saying, but I somewhat wonder if the Return-to-Office mandates will end up being the exact same rug-pull that happened to Joe Plumber in 2008. It’ll trigger a crash. Now all these tech workers who bid up real estate need to flock back to their coastal cities and the current drive is WAY too far and the house they bought is dropping in value…and…and…

When you say “interview”, are there two people/speakers? One asking questions and one person being interviewed?

Rate of change

This is an informative graph, which charts the rate that the planet is heating. If the line is higher, it is increasing faster (acceleration).

Comparing a 27.5 and 29 fork, assuming that they have exactly the same travel amount:

The axle-to-crown (leg length) is slightly longer on a 29 fork. The axle offset is slightly shorter on a 29 fork. The steerer tube is thicker walled (internally) on a 29 fork. The arch/brace height is higher on a 29 fork.

The first two are subtle changes to the steering geometry. Putting a 27 wheel on a 29 fork will give slightly slow / floppy steering. It will still work.

Interesting quote for our times:

the additional buying power made available by added debt tends to lead to inflation rather than more finished goods and services. This inflationary tendency is the problem the US has been contending with recently.

Seems like you can’t print your way out of resource and energy limits.

It’s the bike (frame) not your shock.

https://linkagedesign.blogspot.com/2016/09/focus-vice-275-2017.html

That frame is basically a linear progression curve. (See “leverage ratio” graph.

This means that there isnt much of a “ramp up” in the resistance as you hit big stuff. That’s what you’re feeling. Second point: you can’t do much to fix this from the shock perspective.

Adding tokens and adjusting the shock tune could improve bottom out resistance at the trade off of stiffer suspension

The megneg won’t help for this issue (it modifies only the first 1/3 of the travel).

Different frame with much higher progression will help.

Theory time:

A progressive frame let’s you run suspension that is both soft at the start and very firm at the end.

A linear frame like yours has nearly the same bump response at the start and end.

Let’s say you hit TWO bumps. The progressive suspension has a different respond depending where the shock is within the stroke. It can move easily when extended (start), but a similar bump when the shock is partway through the travel will not move the suspension as much.

A linear bike hitting two bumps will move a more similar amount for each.

The above thought is why you might like the feel of one design over the other…it depends on your style and terrain.

Theory time 2:

On the graph “Forces”, you can see this frame bottoms out with 1600 Newtons and sits at sag (30%) with 500 newtons.

So 500N is gravity, and 3G’s of down force is the maximum force to bottom.

For a bike to handle extreme trails (big drops and jumps) you will find you need around 5-6G bottom out resistance in the frame. If you dont have this level of leverage / profession you’ll end up breaking the frame.

(If memory serves, a ~6 foot drop to flat is around 5Gs of down force in the landing.)

Link: https://vorsprungsuspension.com/blogs/learn/understanding-leverage-curves

Says the same thing in a different way, but useful round up of the concepts.

…and make Mexico pay for it.

We are subsidizing Canada to the tune of more than 200 Billion Dollars a year.

Translation: Canada buys more stuff from us than we do from them.

Like… why are taxes so hard when the IRS always has all my data?

In some European countries, the government automatically does the taxes and just sends a letter showing the result of the calculation so you have a chance to review the result.

They have all the numbers already…

There is a whole branch of management theory about “narcissistic leadership”.

Narcissistic leaders are not always dysfunctional narcissist personalities…it’s also a style of leadership where the people in charge push their own ideas / agenda and dont really care about other people. Its essentially a leader who is in the job for their own selfish personal gains.

The benefit of narcissistic leaders is that they can be very magnetic people who become very popular. In management schools they basically accept that these people are useful for rallying support.

The danger is that if there is a power vacuum, they often step into top positions where there is no longer oversight / supervision. This is the cardinal rule: you NEVER let these people run anything. NEVER.

Once in a top position, they tend to discard rules, disregard others, do a lot of bad things in secret, sabotage all rivals etc etc, eventually leading to major corruption problems for any organization they head.