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I don’t know what kind of firewall you use, but if my firewall is down there is NO traffic at all passing through!
Only a hardware firewall would do this. If it’s software, like implied in your post, no traffic is filtered and all connections are accepted.
VPN is the least amount of work for the most secure setup. There’s nothing to even argue, its superior in every way.
The entire point of selfhost is to host private services not available to the public. By literal definition, that’s allowing only local traffic to connect to your services. It’s infinitely more secure. A VPN allows you to extend those services over the clearnet to authorized devices via virtualized networks. You don’t have to worry about messing with inbound/outbound ports, or worrying about software failure or misconfigurations accidentally exposing you to the clearnet. You don’t have to worry about DDoS, or abuse. Being attacked? Bring down your VPN and that completely shuts down your issue. Your network is completely unreachable by anyone but a local host.
There’s simply no room for an argument. VPN is objectively better in all possible situations.