By Tyler PagerJulian E. Barnes and Frances Robles
The plan is more regime alteration than regime change.
The Trump administration has been looking for a current or former Cuban official who could be persuaded to take over the government in Havana as the United States ratchets up its pressure campaign, according to current and former U.S. officials.
The Trump administration has pressed its spy agencies to identify someone in the mold of Delcy Rodríguez, who became Venezuela’s interim president after U.S. forces captured the previous leader, Nicolás Maduro, in January.
But American spy agencies have assessed that Cuba is less like Venezuela and more like Iran, according to people briefed on the intelligence reports.
There are few pragmatic officials who would be poised to take power if U.S. forces captured Raúl Castro, the former president of Cuba who still wields enormous political influence, or somehow forced out the current leadership, according to multiple U.S. officials.
Instead, the officials waiting in the wings in Cuba, like their Iranian counterparts, represent more hard-line factions.
U.S. officials presented a list of demands to Cuban leaders in recent weeks, offering incentives if Cuba made progress.
The Trump administration wants Cuba to liberalize its economy, open up to American businesses, buy oil from the United States and push out Russian and Chinese intelligence operatives.
Few details are known about the incentives the United States has offered, but some involve providing more humanitarian aid and loosening U.S. sanctions imposed on the Cuban economy.
The U.S. government has imposed a de facto blockade on Cuba, bringing the island into crisis as energy supplies have nearly run out.
The current Cuban government does not appear willing, at least for now, to make those kinds of concessions, giving an urgency to the efforts to identify alternative leaders.
Given the dearth of pragmatists, it is not clear whom the White House might prefer as an alternative leader.
The Cuban government appears to be supporting Oscar Pérez-Oliva Fraga, a grand nephew of Fidel Castro, as a potential successor. He has recently been more visible on state television and in government pronouncements, and even gave a rare interview to international news media.
But Mr. Pérez-Oliva Fraga would almost certainly be unacceptable to the United States. The Trump administration might be open to another Castro relative, Raúl G. Rodríguez Castro, known as “Raulito” or “El Cangrejo” (the Crab), Raúl Castro’s grandson. He long served as the former president’s bodyguard but has never held public office.
The current interior minister, Lázaro Alberto Álvarez Casas, may also be acceptable to U.S. officials.
When John Ratcliffe, the C.I.A. director, visited Cuba this year he met with both Mr. Rodríguez Castro and Mr. Álvarez Casas.