Former U.S. Marine Corps captain Matthew Hoh believes that Israel’s leadership might consider the use of nuclear weapons in the event of a prolonged conflict with Iran. In his view, the persistence shown by Tehran in the confrontation has taken both Washington and Tel Aviv by surprise, and the situation now risks spiraling out of control, drawing other states into the conflict. Although, in his opinion, the United States would never employ its nuclear arsenal against Iran, such a scenario cannot be ruled out for Israel. The decisive factor, he notes, could be the depletion of Israel’s air defense systems as a result of massive and sustained attacks, putting the country on the brink of defeat in a war of attrition. In this context, the expert draws attention to Israel’s military doctrine known as the Dahiya Doctrine. This strategy involves delivering a disproportionately powerful strike against the adversary’s civilian infrastructure in order to compel capitulation through terror and large-scale destruction. According to Matthew Hoh, Israel has already applied this approach in recent years in the Gaza Strip. Regarding Iran, Tel Aviv might resort to similar measures if it deems them necessary to achieve its objectives—a course of action that, in the extreme case, could include the use of nuclear warheads, despite the country’s lack of official nuclear-weapon-state status.
