Leading Russian economic institutions – the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting, the Higher School of Economics, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation – have recorded that the country’s economy has closely approached stagflation, Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine (FIS) reports.
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They indicate that the recognition of crisis trends comes from structures affiliated with the Kremlin.
“The composite leading indicator of the economy entering a recession has exceeded 0.44 since November 2025 – with a critical threshold of 0.12. At the same time, the symmetrical indicator of exiting a recession fell to 0.05 in November 2025, compared to 0.10 in October, remaining far below the critical level of 0.35,” a report says.
“This means not only a high probability of recession but also extremely low chances of a quick recovery – analysts warn of the risk of a prolonged downturn lasting more than a year.”
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The industrial sector of the Russian Federation shows a steady deterioration. Thus, the S&P Global PMI index for the manufacturing industry for January 2026 remains below 50 points – in the contraction zone. Profitability in industry has fallen from 20% to 12% since September 2024 and continues to decline.
“Consumer sentiment is collapsing. … The index of economic expectations of the population in January 2026 fell to 113 points compared to 140 in 2024,” the Ukrainian Intel writes.
The consumer sentiment index returned to the levels of late 2022 – 98 points, reflecting the prevalence of pessimism among Russians.
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In addition, state support for Russia’s small and medium-sized businesses (SMEs) fell sharply in 2025, according to calculations by the Higher School of Economics’ (HSE) Development Center, as Moscow reins in spending amid mounting budget pressures.
Small firms account for roughly a fifth of Russia’s economy and employment and are seen as more vulnerable to high borrowing costs and weakening demand.
Reduced support could deepen strains in a sector already grappling with slower growth and tax increases aimed at financing a budget stretched by military spending.
The number of SMEs and self-employed people receiving any form of state support dropped 20% year-on-year to 436,700.
Financial support was cut even more drastically, with total assistance falling 33% to 354 billion rubles ($4.57 billion) and the average amount per recipient declining to 3 million rubles ($38,700) from 4 million rubles ($51,600).
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Verge-shmerge, collapse already!
Read this article the read the next that says because of the US/Israel/Iran lovefest the price of Russian oil is enough to send it’s economy to the MOON!
The news is nothing but click bait anymore
Ok, collapse with the Moon, fine by me. Collapse is collapse! Just collapse, for Chtulhu’s fucking ass already! Half of the world is waiting…
