cross-posted from: https://hexbear.net/post/7811520

The wars in Ukraine and Gaza exposed munitions shortfalls and the fragility of Western defense industrial bases. US-China competition has further identified industrial capacity as a sort of strategic infrastructure that determines endurance, military capabilities, and economic growth. China-light policies by Western governments signals seriousness, but it may not be enough to build the structural depth that real industrial power requires. Without that, state involvement in the economy risks becoming episodic and reactive, when it needs to be transformative instead.

China’s industrial advantage is often reduced to subsidies or low labor costs. Integration, however, has been the most important variable, as Beijing spent decades linking upstream resource extraction to midstream processing and downstream manufacturing. This reinforced the system with state finance, protected demand, and long-time horizons. Western apathy that led to these industrial ecosystems to die as China began to control the entire global market.

China’s industrial strategy also has strategic adaptability. As the US and its allies impose tariffs and “de-risking” measures, China’s industrial depth allows it to reroute supply chains and absorb shocks. Its dominance in solar panel manufacturing, where China controls over 80% of all stages of production, allows the weathering of trade disputes by shifting exports to non-Western markets. Chinse industrial power is now like the force of gravity: difficult to escape even when alternatives exist.