Iran appears to have rapidly repaired several ballistic missile facilities damaged in strikes last year, but it has made only limited fixes to major nuclear sites struck by Israel and the United States, a New York Times analysis of satellite imagery suggests.
The uneven pace of reconstruction offers clues about Iran’s military priorities as the United States amasses forces near it and President Trump weighs new military action. If the United States were to attack, Iran would most likely retaliate with ballistic missiles targeting Israel and U.S. assets in the region.
“Threatening Israel and U.S. bases and allies in the region with missile attacks is one of Iran’s few options to deter repeat strikes on its nuclear facilities,” John P. Caves III, an expert consultant with the Center for the Study of Weapons of Mass Destruction at National Defense University in Washington, wrote in an email.
By contrast, experts say, the images of Iran’s damaged major nuclear facilities show only partial repairs and fortification efforts, which picked up pace only in recent months.
Joseph Rodgers, a fellow at the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies who has monitored Iran’s nuclear program, said that until recently, much of the activity seen around the nuclear sites appeared geared mostly toward damage assessment and stabilization, like clearing debris and filling in craters.
Western and Israeli officials have found few signs that Iran has made significant progress toward rebuilding its ability to enrich nuclear fuel and to fashion a nuclear warhead.
The Institute for Science and International Security said in a report last week that it had detected an uptick in activity at the Isfahan nuclear complex in past days, most recently to bury tunnel entrances with fresh soil.
David Albright, the president of the institute, said that piling up dirt was likely in “anticipation of an attack, which would imply there’s something in there that’s valuable,” possibly enriched uranium.
Mr. Albright said it was not clear what Iran was doing. “But it is increasing suspicion that they’re reconstituting a program to be able to build nuclear weapons,” he said. “We don’t think it is urgent or imminent by any means.”
The United States and Iran were expected to meet in Oman on Friday in an attempt to stave off another conflict. The scope of the talks were not immediately clear, but Iran’s nuclear program was likely to be a key focus.