Abstract.

The world seems headed into another El Nino, just 3 years after the last one. Such quick return normally would imply, at most, an El Nino of moderate strength, but we suggest that even a moderately strong El Nino may yield record global temperature already in 2026 and still greater temperature in 2027. The extreme warming will be a result mainly of high climate sensitivity and a recent increase of the net global climate forcing, not the result of an exceptional El Nino, per se.

We find that the principal drive for global warming acceleration began in about 2015, which implies that 2°C global warming is likely to be reached in the 2030s, not at midcentury.

  • collapse_already@lemmy.mlEnglish
    2·
    10 days ago

    The article won’t open for me currently. Hopefully, it is just a temporary outage.

    The Columbia url makes me believe it is probably James Hansen. I am grateful that he is still working and not retired. I worry about who will step up to fill the void of truth speaker when he is gone. People of his exceptional aptitude and integrity are rare.

  • fake_meows@sopuli.xyz
    2·
    1 month ago

    Obviously all the science parts are just devastating. Figure 1 is quite jaw dropping. It has warmed so fast that a minimal-strength El Nino today will be worse than a Super Nino ten years ago. That’s acceleration.

    But the second piece that I find amazing is the science community reaction he discusses on page 7.

    Paraphrasing, what he says is that it’s obvious that the orthodox Global Climate models that have been the basis for political outlook are getting it wrong and underestimating the severity of the picture. But that despite the widespread recognition that there is a Big Mistake, nobody has been willing to tackle this on the scientific merit.

    I can imagine a bunch of human factors that could explain this, but I don’t think it’s helping the understanding.

    I wonder if the scientific community is scared. What are we to make of this?

    • eleitl@lemmy.zipOPM
      2·
      1 month ago

      As a general observation, elite dysfunction only grows during collapse. Science is being muffled and defunded.

      On a sad note, we’ve lost Richard Crim (probably due to Covid-19) last year. His sudden silence was due to his death, as I expected. We will miss his clear explanations and his great reports.