Trump’s single focus on Ukrainian negotiations was always Russia distancing with Iran, and a quicker victory/peace is an easy bribe for Russia to accept.
But, OP, suggests deeper Iranian miscalculation for an independent path.
re China, Iran has a full tropic thunder apporach to tolerating west potential: https://x.com/PandemicTruther/status/1935021769762451584
By far, the easiest escape for Iran today is to announce total renoucement of all use of Uranium. Nuclear energy has 0 economic value, and especially in a place as sunny as Iran, with massive employment opportunities to deploy it. Solar helps Iran’s energy exports by displacing its use internally.
Specific fucktardery by Iran towards China includes ratting ZTE and Huawei out to US. https://x.com/PandemicTruther/status/1935027715809186120