I saw an article about them attacking Lebanon now. So, where will it stop? Have the Israeli government ever spoken about this?
I saw an article about them attacking Lebanon now. So, where will it stop? Have the Israeli government ever spoken about this?
Uh… I think you missed the part that said “when Egypt inevitably collapses”.
It already has, numerous times. Nothing happened.
Huh? Are we having the same conversation?
I’m pointing that Egypt has already collapsed since Israel captured the Sinai and returned it in exchange for recognition. You claimed that when this Egyptian government collapses, or rather if it does, then Israel will seize the opportunity to do so. But they’ve had this opportunity presented to them already. For example, in 2011… but they didn’t do anything, so why would they now?
Uh… Egypt did not collapse in 2011. That was a regime change. I’m talking about a Libya or Syria-style failure to keep existing as a sovereign state.
Government collapses tend to count as state collapses, but using your definition it’s pretty hard for Egypt to end up in that state. Unless an extremely powerful empire like the British or the Ottomans takes over. Egypt’s geography makes it very hard for the country to be divided and fall into civil war. Virtually all Egyptians live on the Nile or its delta, and those areas are completely packed with a fairly homogenous population. There’s isn’t a big demographic rift or a clear ideological divide. There’s the Coptic Christians who make up 10% of the population, but they aren’t large enough to do anything and there’s the islamic fundamentalists, who do cause trouble, but they either swing the whole country in that direction or don’t have enough influence to do anything.
You only say that because you don’t know how Egypt is looking like right now. Egypt’s economy is the worst it’s ever been in decades because of mismanagement, and it’s not getting better. We’re seeing the government build new bridges and cities using our tax pounds while people can’t buy food. They’re borrowing money at absurd rates to try to keep the whole thing from collapsing and paying back by selling the counter piecemeal to gulf states while refusing to actually fix anything. People keep having to find places to cut back on food and other essentials just so they don’t starve. We can’t get enough fuel for the country so blackouts have been going on for a while and it’s killing newborns in hospitals. Hell, a guy I know had a 9-hour long blackout recently.
Egypt’s economy is in free fall right now and there’s not much more room for falling before people starve. Some kind of revolution is going to happen within the next few decades (because people don’t like to die of starvation) and you know what happens when the people try taking back control from a military dictatorship. Where exactly it’ll be on the Frenchrevolution-Syrian civil war (which started because the Syrian government refused to give up its power) spectrum I don’t know, but given what I’ve seen from other examples in the region and the behavior of Egypt’s government I am very much not optimistic.
I am well aware that Egypt’s economy is in shambles because of Al Sisi’s vanity project in building the new capital city with money the country doesn’t have. I agree with you that some kind of revolution is bound to happen at this rate, and I actually think it’ll happen in the next few years because the situation is pretty grim. I’m not Egyptian, but I’ve talked to Egyptians who say their families in Egypt are struggling to the point where they find it difficult to buy rice and sugar. I don’t think a revolution is a few decades away with conditions like that. With that being said, is there any indication that the upcoming revolution will end in civil war? Egypt can’t be compared to the other countries in the region because it’s a unique country due to its geography and high population. Based on recent Egyptian history, which I think is the best comparisons we can make, the country has had a few dictators and revolutions but it hasn’t had any civil wars, at least not any that I could recall. Is there something on the ground that is not apparent in the media our Egyptian diaspora?
Not really; it’s just that I doubt the army will give up power peacefully. Hence civil war or violent revolution. And in both cases it wouldn’t be strange if Israel decided to expand into Sinai during the chaos.