- cross-posted to:
- worldnews@lemmygrad.ml
- cross-posted to:
- worldnews@lemmygrad.ml
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So basically, let Russia do whatever they want and have no input from Ukraine.
By talking directly to Russia, the US is signalling that Russia as an equal whose interests matter, while the interests of Europe and Ukraine are irrelevant. Just as Kissinger and Nixon managed to peel China away from the USSR in the 70s, the US may be trying a similar tactic today by handing over Europe in an attempt to isolate China from Russian support.
Yog, you think this is going to be reproachment to ask Russia if they want to join the club? I hope Russia is hardened against the possibility by previous betrayals, but I have been worried since 2016 that the move has always been getting Russia to turn against China.
My confirmation-biased logic tells me Russia and China are only getting closer and Russia is building more dependencies on China, but my gut has been saying for almost 10 years that the only move the USA has ever had was to get Russia to join them against China. Maybe what I was sensing wasn’t world historical movements but merely the unspoken ambition of the new guard, but I have to imagine that if I am picking up on that ambition, they must have some reason to believe it’s possible to enlist Russia.
I think that might be the attempt on the part of the US, bu I also see little chance of this working. The problem that the US has is that it’s got no credibility. Anything one admin promises, the next could reverse as Europe is now finding out. China, on the other hand, has political stability and continuity of policy that spans decades. Nobody in their right mind would trade that for anything US has to offer.
That said though, if the US can extricate itself from Europe completely, then it does allow them to focus on Asia as they’re itching to do now. So, they don’t necessarily need Russia as an ally here, but they might settle for Russia not being openly hostile to them.
I agree. I think there’s two considerations that could flip Russia.
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Military exhaustion. If the US can create a viable strategic threat to Russia, Russia may choose junior partner status over war. I think this is unlikely given the USA’s performance in Ukraine, but I know these games are played at the intelligence level and the USA may still be able to show Russian intelligence some form of dangerous strategic threat either in domestic irregulars or to Russia’s interests in Africa and SE Asia.
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Financial gain for a younger faction of Russian bourgeoisie. Euromaidan showed us that despite decades of anti-West sentiment and Western duplicity, there was still enough support in Ukraine for a Western reproachment. I imagine there is likely a faction in Russia that is similar. If the USA can offer junior imperial status to them, it might convince them to seize power. I think this unlikely due to the failure of Western sanctions but it’s possible that some of the younger and willing bourgeoisie are in fact hurting and that the older bourgeoisie are dominating the partnerships with China. These would be conditions that could cause such a realignment.
I also think that military exhaustion on part of Russia seems like a highly unlikely scenario at this point. Also, I would be shocked if China didn’t end up stepping in if it came to that. Losing Russia as a shield in the west would be absolutely catastrophic for China.
I also don’t see the dynamics for any sort of Euromaidan in Russia. Ukraine was in a completely different situation economically and politically when the coup happened. In fact, three years of war facilitated purging any real dissent within Russia. A great illustration of that was the whole Prigozhin mutiny where everyone immediately declared their support for the government. It’s also notable that public sector plays a dominant role in Russian economy now, so the power of the oligarchs is much diminished from the peak in the 90s.
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So realistically we never ended the Cold War.
As was evidenced by NATO failing to disband in the 90s.
