No using search engines or calculator, just imagine you were given these choices in jail and got 30 seconds to choose.

Would you rather have the executioner (Please excuse my use of firearm terminology, I’m not an expert in guns):

[A] Load 1 chamber of 6 and spin before pull the trigger 6 times (spinning the chamber after each pull)

or

[B] Load 2 chamber of 6 and spin before pull the trigger 3 times (spinning the chamber after each pull)

or

[C] Load 4 chamber of 6 and spin before pull the trigger once

If you survive, you are pardoned of all crimes you’ve committed in the past and get to leave prison (alive, obviously), no compensation tho. (Attempts to end your own life is illegal)

Which of these options would you pick?

No search engine, no calculator pls. I’m bored and wanna make this fun. 😉

If you are confused, ask in comments.

Edit: Reworded it to clarify that the chamber is spinned before the first trigger is pulled.

  • @vinylshrapnel@lemmynsfw.comEnglish
    1•3 days ago

    Because the barrel is spun each time it’s a simple percentage assuming the weight of the bullets don’t affect the spin. A is 16.2% for each trigger pull. B is 33.3% chance each trigger pull. C is 66.7%. The chances don’t stack because the barrel is spun again before each shot.

    • @Atomic@sh.itjust.works
      1•2 days ago

      That’s not how statistics work.

      Leta say you’re on your 6:th shot on option A.

      For you to even get there, it requires all previous attempts to be in your favor. You’re looking at events that all have to happen in a favorable order. And that is as follows

      5/6 chance you live after the first time. (5/6)^2 chance you live after the second. (Because you have to survive the first) (5/6)^3 chance you live after the third. (Because you have to survive the first AND the second) … and so on until (5/6)^6 ~ 33%

      Think about flipping a coin. Do you really think getting 6 heads in a row is 50/50? The coin is “reset” between each flip. But it’s not a 50/50 chance to get 6 heads in a row. If you don’t believe me. Try it and see. According to statistics. It will take you 64 attempts to get 6 heads in a row.

    • xigoiEnglish
      2•3 days ago

      By this logic, if you roll a die 1000 times, you have only a 1/6 chance to get at teast one 6.

    • AwkwardLookMonkeyPuppetEnglish
      1•3 days ago

      They don’t stack, but statistically the probability of a fire goes up each time it is spun again. It’s not additive, but it does increase.