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Joined 2 years ago
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Cake day: July 5th, 2023

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  • Im vergangenen Jahr, so gab der Börsenverein des Deutschen Buchhandels kürzlich bekannt, gab es zwar einerseits ein leichtes Umsatzplus von 0,8 Prozent – andererseits aber ging die Zahl der verkaufter Bücher um 1,7 Prozent zurück. Vereinfacht gesagt: Weniger Menschen kaufen mehr Bücher.

    Habe ich hier einen Denkfehler oder ist das absoluter Schwachsinn? Nichts hier verrät uns wieviele Bücher pro Kunde gekauft wurden. Die korrekte Schlussfolgerung ist, dass die gekauften Bücher im Schnitt teurer geworden sind.

    Wobei man nicht wissen kann ob gleiche Bücher schlicht teurer geworden sind oder sich eventuell das Kaufverhalten dahingehend geändert hat, dass andere (teurere) Buchkategorien stärker nachgefragt werden. Für letzteres würde z.B. der verstärkte Anstieg von Sachbüchern sprechen, denn ich gehe Mal davon aus, dass diese im Schnitt teurer sind.



  • I am not an Alien die hard fan, but I’d say that is definitely a factor. The movie reuses a lot of ideas from the older movies and some of the references are pretty on the nose. Still an entertaining movie though.

    As a comparison i think Prey (2022) did a better job in being a fresh entry to a similar and established franchise (predator in this case) and standing on it’s own.



  • If we are talking the manufacturing side, rather than design/software i am very curious to see how SIMC develops. You are absolutely right that there is a big advantage for the second mover, since they can avoid dead ends and already know on an abstract level what is working. And diminishing returns also help make gaps be slightly less relevant.

    However i think we can’t just apply the same timeline to them and say “they have 7nm now” and it took others x years to progress from there to 5nm or 3nm, because these steps include the major shift from DUV to EUV, which was in the making for a very long time. And that’s a whole different beast compared to DUV, where they are also probably still relying on ASML machines for the smallest nodes (although i think producing those domestically is much more feasible). Eventually they’ll get there, but i think this isn’t trivial and will take more than 2 years for sure.

    On the design side vs Nvidia the hyperscalers like Alibaba/Tencent/Baidu or maybe even a smaller newcomer might be able to create something competitive for their specific usecases (like the Google TPUs). But Nvidia isn’t standing still either, so i think getting close to parity will be extremely hard there aswell.


    Of course, the price gap will shrink at the same rate as ROCm matures and customers feel its safe to use AMD hardware for training.

    Well to what degree ROCm matures and closes the gap is probably the question. Like i said, i agree that their hardware seems quite capable in many ways, although my knowledge here is quite limited. But AMD so far hasn’t really shown that they can compete with Nvidia on the software side.


    As far as Intel goes, being slow in my reply helps my point. Just today Intel canceled their next-generation GPU Falcon Shore, making it an internal development step only. As much as i am rooting for them, it will need a major shift in culture and talent for them to right the ship. Gaudi 3 wasn’t successful (i think they didn’t even meet their target of $500mio sales) and now they probably don’t have any release in 2025, assuming Jaguar Lake is 2026 since Falcon Shore was slated for end of this year. In my books that is the definition of being behind more than 1 year, considering they are not even close to parity right now.



  • Dieser Zeit Artikel hat das Wahlverhalten der einzelnen Abgeordneten als Anhang.

    Somit ergab sich die nötige Mehrheit von 348 Stimmen bei 344 Gegenstimmen und zehn Enthaltungen.


    Hab mal eine Tabelle gemacht

    Dafür Dagegen Enthalten Nicht Abgegeben
    AFD 75 0 0 1 76
    BSW 0 0 8 2 10
    FDP 80 0 2 8 90
    Fraktionslos 6 2 0 1 9
    Grüne 0 115 0 2 117
    Linke 0 26 0 2 28
    SPD 0 200 0 7 207
    Union 187 1 0 8 196
    348 344 10 31 733
    • Wissing und Stefan Seidler vom SSW waren die Fraktionslosen dagegen

    • Antje Tillmann von der CDU hat lobenswerter Weise als einzige dagegen gestimmt. Tritt bei der kommenden Wahl nichtmehr an (derzeit im Bundestag über die Landesliste Thüringen)

    • Der rechtsextremen Koalition von Union+AFD+FDP sind also 17 Stimmen durch nicht Abgegeben entgangen. Der Gegenseite aus SPD+Grüne+Linke 11. Wenn alle nicht abgegebenen so wie der Rest gestimmt hätten, dann hätte das hier also trotzdem nicht gereicht um den Ausgang zu verändern.

    • BSW hätte das Zünglein an der Waage sein können und versucht sich aus der Verantwortung zu stehlen. Aber Enthaltung ist auch eine bewusste Entscheidung und nicht neutral. Man muss sie mMn wohl zur “Dafür” Seite zählen und sie sind zusätzlich zu feige es zuzugeben. Ähnliches gilt für die zwei Enthaltungen der FDP.

    Edit: Abgeordnetenwatch hat das Abstimmungsverhalten ebenfalls graphisch aufgearbeitet


  • Yeah. I don’t believe market value is a great indicator in this case. In general, I would say that capital markets are rational at a macro level, but not micro. This is all speculation/gambling.

    I have to concede that point to some degree, since i guess i hold similar views with Tesla’s value vs the rest of the automotive Industry. But i still think that the basic hirarchy holds true with nvidia being significantly ahead of the pack.

    My guess is that AMD and Intel are at most 1 year behind Nvidia when it comes to tech stack. “China”, maybe 2 years, probably less.

    Imo you are too optimistic with those estimations, particularly with Intel and China, although i am not an expert in the field.

    As i see it AMD seems to have a quite decent product with their instinct cards in the server market on the hardware side, but they wish they’d have something even close to CUDA and its mindshare. Which would take years to replicate. Intel wish they were only a year behind Nvidia. And i’d like to comment on China, but tbh i have little to no knowledge of their state in GPU development. If they are “2 years, probably less” behind as you say, then they should have something like the rtx 4090, which was released end of 2022. But do they have something that even rivals the 2000 or 3000 series cards?

    However, if you can make chips with 80% performance at 10% price, its a win. People can continue to tell themselves that big tech always will buy the latest and greatest whatever the cost. It does not make it true.

    But the issue is they all make their chips at the same manufacturer, TSMC, even Intel in the case of their GPUs. So they can’t really differentiate much on manufacturing costs and are also competing on the same limited supply. So no one can offer 80% of performance at 10% price, or even close to it. Additionally everything around the GPU (datacenters, rack space, power useage during operation etc.) also costs, so it is only part of the overall package cost and you also want to optimize for your limited space. As i understand it datacenter building and power delivery for them is actually another limiting factor right now for the hyperscalers.

    Google, Meta and Amazon already make their own chips. That’s probably true for DeepSeek as well.

    Google yes with their TPUs, but the others all use Nvidia or AMD chips to train. Amazon has their Graviton CPUs, which are quite competitive, but i don’t think they have anything on the GPU side. DeepSeek is way to small and new for custom chips, they evolved out of a hedge fund and just use nvidia GPUs as more or less everyone else.


  • Thematische und Sektor ETFs sind finde ich nochmal ein ganz eigenes Thema und könnten ja auch passiv einem Index folgen.

    Ich stimme dir aber prinzipiell absolut zu, dass der Artikel nicht kritisch genug ist. Für mich besonders was Kathie Woods angeht.

    Für Furore hat in den vergangenen Jahren die Star-Investorin Cathie Wood mit ihrem aktiven ETF, dem “ARK Innovation”-Fonds gesorgt.

    Wood investierte ab 2020 aggressiv in US-Technologieunternehmen, was den Fondskurs zunächst deutlich nach oben trieb und viele Milliarden Dollar an Anlegergeldern anzog. Immer wieder allerdings gab es auch heftige Kurseinbrüche. Und im vergangenen Jahr schnitt der Fonds schlechter ab als der US-Leitindex S&P 500.

    Dass praktisch jeder Anleger der nach der initial unglaublich guten Performance (Höhepunkt ca. Anfang 21) eingestiegen wahrscheinlich substantiell verloren hat wird nicht erwähnt. Wenn man sich die Zusammensetzung anschaut wurde der Großteil der Performance durch einige wenige Unternehmensbeteiligungen wie Tesla verursacht. Das ganze ist eigentlich näher am Investieren in Einzelaktien als an Index investieren, womit man potentiell deutlich besser gefahren wäre. Kein Wort von risk-adjusted Returns und dass man deswegen ARKK und den S&P500 nicht einfach so vergleichen sollte. Wobei wenn dann der nasdaq 100 wohl der bessere Vergleichsindex wäre, dann sähe es aber noch schlechter aus.


    Hab es mir mal kurz in Tradingview angeschaut und Kurse verglichen:

    Wenn man von Begin an Ende 2014 in ARKK investiert und bis heute gehalten hätte, dann wäre man 234% im Plus. Als Vergleich: SPY 259%, NASDAQ 416% und Tesla 2371%. Hier fehlen aber glaube ich noch die Dividenden.






  • I have to disagree with that, because this solution isn’t free either.

    Asking them to regulate their use requires them to build excess capacity purely for those peaks (so additional machinery), to have more inventory in stock, and depending on how manual labor intensive it is also means people have to work with a less reliable schedule. With some processes it might also simply not be able to regulate them up/down fast enough (or at all).

    This problem is simply a function of whether it is cheaper to a) build excess capacity or b) build enough capacity to meet demand with steady production and add battery storage as needed.

    Compared to most manufacturing lines battery tech is relatively simple tech, requries little to no human labor and still makes massive gains in price/performance. So my bet is that it’ll be the cheaper solution.

    That said it is of course not a binary thing and there might be some instances where we can optimize energy demand and supply, but i think in the industry those will happen naturally through market forces. However this won’t be enough to smooth out the gap difference in the timing of supply/demand.


  • Die Bahnhöfe sind in Privatbesitz, da man durch anhaltende Züge bares Geld verdient.

    Wieso verdienen die Eigentümer durch anhaltende Züge Geld? Es ist doch vermutlich nur das Bahnhofsgebäude in privatbesitz, nicht die Bahnsteige oder der Zugang.

    Generell stimme ich dir aber absolut zu: Eigentum verpflichtet. Wenn das Gebäude/das Grundstück benötigt wird oder der Verfall das Stadtbild verschandelt, dann müss man dem Eigentümer einfach eine Frist setzen. Entweder er macht was aus dem Gebäude oder er muss es abgeben. Nicht kostenlos, aber halt maximal zu dem Preis zu dem er es gekauft hat, minus Wertverlust durch Verfall.


  • It’s a reaction to thinking China has better AI

    I don’t think this is the primary reason behind Nvidia’s drop. Because as long as they got a massive technological lead it doesn’t matter as much to them who has the best model, as long as these companies use their GPUs to train them.

    The real change is that the compute resources (which is Nvidia’s product) needed to create a great model suddenly fell of a cliff. Whereas until now the name of the game was that more is better and scale is everything.

    China vs the West (or upstart vs big players) matters to those who are investing in creating those models. So for example Meta, who presumably spends a ton of money on high paying engineers and data centers, and somehow got upstaged by someone else with a fraction of their resources.



  • Since i had to look it up myself and to spare anyone else the hassle here is a link to his wikipedia page

    Ron Filipkowski (born October 30, 1968)[1][2] is an American criminal defense attorney and former state and federal prosecutor who is known for sharing political clips and commentary on social media.

    […]

    Views

    Filipkowski was a member of the Republican Party until January 2021, when he registered as a Democrat following the January 6 Capitol attack.[11][2] He describes himself as a conservative Democrat.[5]

    Filipkowski is critical of Donald Trump and DeSantis.[12][2] During the 2020 election cycle, Filipkowski recorded a video consisting of reasons he thought the Republican Party should not re-elect Trump as part of an ad campaign by Republican Voters Against Trump, a group launched by Bill Kristol.[2]


  • There is no evidence that poisoning has had any effect on LLMs

    But it is possible, right? As an example from my quick search for example here a paper about Medical large language models

    We find that replacement of just 0.001% of training tokens with medical misinformation results in harmful models more likely to propagate medical errors.

    It’s probably hard to change major things, like e.g. that Trump is the president of the USA, without it being extremely obvious or degrading performance massively. But smaller random facts? Like for example i have little to no online presence under my real name. So i’d imagine it shouldn’t be to hard to add some documents to the training data with made up facts about me. It wouldn’t be noticeable until someone actively looks for it and then they’d need to know the truth beforehand to judge them or at least require sources.

    Every AI will always have bias, just as every person has bias, because humanity has never agreed on what is “truth”.

    That’s true, but since we are in a way actively condensing knowledge with LLMs i think there is a difference, if someone has the ability to influence things at this step without it being noticeable.


  • Tbh i am not a fan of any of those points:

    • Free from Manipulation: Malicious actors can still make dummy accounts to influcence scores and there is also nothing inherent in the system that truly prevents manipulative content

    • No Censorship. No tracking: Censorship can still happen on a instance basis through bans or defederation, althought those are also necessary tools for other reasons. And no tracking imo also is missleading, simply because everything posted here is public (including up/downvotes), there simply isn’t true privacy in a public forum. It’s better in that it doesn’t follow you around to other websites and such, but still putting it so difinitive is wrong.

    • True freedom of speech: Kind of overlaps with the “no censorship” part i think.


    What the fediverse is to me is:

    • Diversity and freedom of choice

    • Resilience against central control


  • golli@lemm.eetomovies@lemm.eeA full list of 2025 Oscar nominations
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    12 days ago

    I feel like i have to add it to my watchlist simply to be able to have an informed opinion, even if it isn’t necessarily what i’d be drawn to.

    It’s great to see there’s finally a trans actress to receive an Oscar nomination, but the performance wasn’t amazing, and I’d say Demi Moore or Mikey Madison had much better material to work with and really showed their talent.

    If it were just that, a single (or a few) nomination, but it just got 13 oscar nominations, twice for best original song. So depending on how you count the double entry it’s the most nominated film of the year or tied with The Brutalist at 10.